@jjddww Just said it wouldn't be surprising to see them start to slow the rate hikes down. There's like a 20% chance they do. You don't need to get upset.
@gilbertkatongo Since 50bs is slightly above expectations, The AUD ought to increase if they go 50.
And if they go 25, the AUD ought to decrease by about twice to three times as much as it would have increased had they gone 50
This is because interbank futures pricing implies 2-3× higher chance of 50bps, so 25bps would be twice to three times as many basis points of "surprise" as 50bps would be.
@jesuslover07 These probabilities seem to fluctuate quite a bit each month. These could just be the troughs for this month? The expected October hike was as low as 30 in September. You could have made the same prediction for October then, couldn’t you?
@human4675 the market takes into account what the RBA says and how credible it is. late last year and early this year the market correctly judged that the RBA lacked credibility.
@jesuslover07 Expectations don't mean shit. Either we're high enough and things will resolve, or we're not and undercooking it now will mean a higher result later.
Instead of playing enough as enough, we're playing do the minimum and continually act surprised when it doesn't work.
@jesuslover07 If they are doing 1% increase by the end of the year, why not just do it now. The slower it rises, the slower fear builds. People need to stop spending now, not next year.
