Some of you think the RBA are terrible forecasters.
A few of you, with friends working inside the RBA, have pointed out that there is significant disagreement between the economics team and the monetary policy team/decision-makers.
Honestly, who tf knows.
That said, what I can see is this:
https://preview.redd.it/3zrpift4ixx...bp&s=aa008ad4f3ffdd3a82c79eda8917b308da45fdfd
a) what the RBA has explicitly said, and
b) what the in-house economics team are projecting after factoring rate rises.
Edit: And the value of New Home Loans just surged 5.5% month-on-month. Surprise, surprise - the AUD now reversing course and surging.
https://preview.redd.it/bnktyvbhkxx...bp&s=68a7688b57a73a75d0a46ead56300e47d831cbab
A few of you, with friends working inside the RBA, have pointed out that there is significant disagreement between the economics team and the monetary policy team/decision-makers.
Honestly, who tf knows.
That said, what I can see is this:
https://preview.redd.it/3zrpift4ixx...bp&s=aa008ad4f3ffdd3a82c79eda8917b308da45fdfd
- Inflation is not forecasted to be in the range of 2% to 3%. This is after factoring the RBA's explicit communication - even in writing - that further increases are on the horizon.
- The unemployment rate is currently at 3.5% and is forecasted to climb to only 4.5%. This is not a doomsday scenario. Yes, it hurts some. But it does not smash the Australian economy.
- If you look around, there are very few signs the unemployment rate is on course to reach 4% by Xmas. By Xmas! I mean...show me where 80,000 people are about to get sacked by 25 December. This gives the RBA room to increase rates higher if 80,000 do not get the chop.
- Soon, it will be mandated that the RBA adopt a dual mandate of achieving inflation in the range of 2-3% and 'maximum' employment.
- There are responsibilities, accountability, and obligations that come with this.
- In other words, one way or another, inflation is going to f...g come down to 2-3%. That is the mandate. Change the mandate, and then we can debate.
a) what the RBA has explicitly said, and
b) what the in-house economics team are projecting after factoring rate rises.
Edit: And the value of New Home Loans just surged 5.5% month-on-month. Surprise, surprise - the AUD now reversing course and surging.
https://preview.redd.it/bnktyvbhkxx...bp&s=68a7688b57a73a75d0a46ead56300e47d831cbab