I think Auckland housing prices will continue to fall by 15%-25%

[grey20]

@heidisolonely Im talking from majority perspective of the properties on the market. Yes you will have people sell properties for different reasons not just financial hardships. When sellers market, owners sell at maximum to maximise profit mostly. When buyers market like right now, owners will try to hold off selling because they know they wont get the price they wont.

 

[kck]

@kalenebari I think house prices will drop bellow 2019 levels. Not only are the interest rates rising but the supply of housing is exceeding demand.

 

[resjudicata]

@kalenebari as long as interest rates keep going up, house prices will keep falling. I'd bet my left testicle on it.

 

[andro]

@kalenebari They will fall by more than that. If you take the 2020/2021 rates around 2.5% and then calculate the cost of money on 6.5% + retail rates, that is a reduction in purchasing power of 40% is so I predict a 40% drop bringing especially in Auckland and Wellington, bringing house prices back to 2016ish, there are houses in both cities now selling at that price already, won't be long until it is the majority.

 

[resjudicata]

@andro I'm about to go unconditional on a place for only like 3% higher than the mid 2017 dales price. Vendors will be making a loss after sales costs and the renos they've done

 

[cr0011]

@resjudicata What area?

 

[resjudicata]

@cr0011 City fringe suburb

 

[cr0011]

@resjudicata Aucks? Welly? Chch?

Only asking as it seems falls are greater in Wellington than elsewhere

 

[resjudicata]

@cr0011 Auckland sorry

 

[estrunk]

@resjudicata Is it an apartment or a house?

 

[resjudicata]

@estrunk Standalone villa in good condition on a good freehold section

 

[estrunk]

@resjudicata The vendor must be really desperate. Good on you!

 

[vartikasinha]

@andro Yeah - I’m already pegging my house at 29% down in this time last year and the valuation peak was Jan (online values following two months after the November peak). I’d predicted 35% peak fall. Annual falls will then start to tail off as they trend down with the falls of this years. Still going down though.

This is in Wellington.

 

[niasia]

@kalenebari Honestly, I'll believe when I see it. 1 year ago in this sub everyone was saying the pandemic didn't affect much of much and interest rates would remain low. Look at what's happening now. I mean no offense, but there are so many political levers that can be yanked to produce the right outcome so that house prices don't fall to the ground.

 

[amelia97]

@niasia No lever comes close to countering the effect of interest rates. Unless the government is going to loan buyers hundreds of thousands of dollars to make up the difference between what they could borrow for a mortgage in 2021 and what they can borrow now

 

[vissie]

@niasia A sign of public doom and gloom talk. So in reality it’s a good time to buy if cashflow is good.

 

[grey20]

@kalenebari Eventually when economy recovers/stable/ strong labour force. Price of any assets will go up again.

Has any one seen any assets lost its value in long run?

 

[laura888]

@grey20 Your assets don't go up in value, the value of the dollar you earn becomes less.

Inflation is a thief that steals from every individual, but is a key requirement of the current fiat monetary system.

 

[jeffoh1990]

@grey20 Japanese housing?

 

[grey20]

@jeffoh1990 Ah that, market went over how much economy can handle. Government and banks took the risky chance during when Yen was very powerful. Almost anyone was able to get loan above their capability which drove market skyrocketing. Then Yen downfall took Japan economy down. Where it was never able to recover from.

NZ the other hand, pretty stable country. Property price is high yes, but still there are enough percentage of people in NZ some what manage to still buy at those prices driving property market.

Just my opinion tho