@vikkik This was written by a Risk Analyst working in the US financial sector
Light Scenario: My Probability:35%
Infections: 1,000,000 Peak by April 30
Deaths: 20,000
Global Containment: 15 countries > 20,000 infected
Business Impact: -15% revenues in Key Sectors over 6 months
SPX low from high: -15% (2800)
Base Case Scenario: My Probability:60%
Infections: 35,000,000 Peak by July 30
peak rate (0.5% global population)
Deaths: 700,000
Global Containment: 50 countries > 100,000 infected
Business Impact: -25% revenues in Key Sectors over 9 months
SPX low from high: -30% (2300)
Serious Scenario: Probability: 5%
Infections Peak: 2-500,000,000, by Nov 1
peak rate (7% global population)
Global Containment: 100 countries > 100,000 infected
Business Impact: -35% in key sectors over 12 months
SPX low from high: -50% (1700)
Looks like market is now discounting as per the Light Scenario (at least till end of last week). If it gets more serious (which is the most likely scenario as per the risk guy), SPY will drop down to 2300.