Will an investment of $140,000 be worth $9,300,000 in 45 years?

@ethan43 You’re not old enough to remember when gas was under a dollar a gallon. Or when a value meal at McDonald’s was less than $5. Candy was still a quarter when I was a kid for a full size bar. Everything creeps up.

This isn’t a point to argue but a fact you need to account for in your planning.
 
@dart agreed. but at the same time, did employees make the same wages as 45 years ago? no. i am not trying to argue. i jsut dont fully understand inflation. would the wage increase not cancel out the COG increase?
 
@davidixoye Wage wasn’t discussed. He said if he invested $150k today, contributed $1k/month, and his investment increased at a rate of 8% per year, he will have nearly $10 million in 45 years.

The fallacy is, he is using future value against the cost of items today.
 
@davidixoye Not necessarily. I think you are thinking theory instead of reality. Which is perfectly normal for someone your age. You simply don't have the life experience to know.

You can look up articles that have been going around for people fighting for minimum wage increase. It'll show you that no, wage does NOT keep up with COG in reality. Several decades ago, a family was able to support themselves with only 1 working parent. Now many families are struggling even with both parents working. However, I would also say this CAN depend on where you live. If you live in a HCOL then obviously wage disparity vs COG is going to be much bigger than a LCOL.

Also keep in mind taxes etc. In CA, I pay enough in taxes every year to buy a nice sedan in cash. In 4 years, that's about 100k I just gave to the govt. So yes, even if you make 150k a year, take taxes into account.

Also medical insurance. Think about the diff stages of life too. If you plan on getting married and having kids, that's another factor. Now you have insurance, school stuff, a nicer/bigger home in good school districts, bigger/nicer car to drive kids around, day care costs. For example, a friend of mine pays about $1500/mo for day care for 1 kid. Health insurance is another few hundred dollars per month for the kid.

With all that said, it's good you're starting young. The best years to invest are when you're young and you have relatively few obligations. You don't care as much about having roommates (believe me, when you start getting to your later 20s and early 30s, you're not gona be able to stand living with other ppl/roommates).
 
@davidixoye Bottom line is assuming 2.7% inflation, your $10 mil in 45 years would have a similar purchasing power of around $3 mil today. So think of the $10 mil in the future as $3 mil in today’s dollars. Wages are a separate animal. They don’t come into play with the given assumptions. If you want to assume your wage increases outpace inflation and your monthly savings increases over time, then that would be a different calculation.
 
@davidixoye I see one other person mentioned real returns, but a lot of people have glossed over it.

The stock market has returned an average of 10+% over the last several decades when you look at a long time horizon. If you want to talk about money in today’s dollars, you generally adjust that number for inflation. So I generally use 7%. 8% is probably a little on the high end, but it’s not impossible.

So when you say you’ll have $9 M in the end, that’s in today’s dollars. In reality, it’ll probably be a lot more than that, but it will have the same buying power as $9M today does.

Though you’d also have to adjust your monthly contributions to go along with inflation too.
 
@davidixoye This is why lotto winners go broke.

You can buy the cars and houses, but the tens of thousands of dollars a month in insurance premiums, mortgages, utilities… on top of trying to live the millionaire lifestyle every day of your life, you’ll burn through that money at an alarming rate.

Like others said — your basic math is sound. But your savings rate might not always be $1,000 per month, you might eat in a bit more into that college fund than you think. Wages might not keep up with inflation over 45 years, or any number of other externalities could rock the boat.

But starting life with trade school education and 6 figures in a bank account will definitely set you up nicely. You’re definitely on the right track. I’d hold off on giving away Tesla’s and Lamborghini’s, though!
 
@davidixoye Mathematically, yes.

But:
8% return is not too unreasonable.... but, remember, you need to pay some tax on that return.

Your 10m also wont be worth 10m in todays money due to infation.

Also, saving $12k/year is, again, not too unreasonable.... but, can you do that whilst saving up for a house deposit? What do you wwnt for a deposit if you are on $120k income? $100k deposit? At $1k/month, thats more than 3 years of savings.... wedding? Car?

Essentially, yes, if you have a $150k headstart, earn $120-$150k/year whilst young, you can comfortably be a millionaire by the time you retire... but $10m is a bit optimistic ----- albeit, not impossible, particularly if you inherit too
 
@sophiepretzel I now am thinking of investing $100k, and saving 40k to help me get rolling, whether that's a used car, help with an apartment, etc. It wont be money to spend on unnecessary things, but would surely help to get going comfortably.
 
@davidixoye
When I retire at age 65

At the amounts you are considering why wait until 65 when you could spend less and live more halfway through? You may want to look into the FIRE movement: /r/FinancialIndependence.

Also don't forget a few things:
  • past performance is not a guarantee of future returns, or as /@sunset27-Range47 says "will and can are two different verbs."
  • inflation will eat your purchasing power so $9M today may only be worth half that in 45 years
It's important to stay ahead of inflation with your investments, but there's no guarantee your investments will make it.

Because of this it is often advised to invest passively in broad index funds. The epitome of this is the Boglehead movement, named after John Bogle who invented the index fund and founded Vanguard. (which incidentally has a unique management structure where the fund managers work for the individual investors rather than a for-profit board)

Under the Boglehead philosophy you don't even invest in "tech mutual funds" or "health mutual funds" – you invest in the entire market for an entire nation, region, or even the entire world. This ensures you aren't chasing the next winner because winners rotate so by investing in a broad sense you are betting on the entire nation or world to continue to grow economically. It produces more modest growth, more in line with your projections, instead of 25% for two years then negative 50% for two years etc like some other funds.

You can discuss at /r/Bogleheads but I strongly recommend also spending time on the official Bogleheads forum and wiki at bogleheads.org as it has FAR deeper discussions and much more information available.

If you want to build a business you would be well advised to get a broad foundation within the trade first and always pay attention to the business leaders you work for to learn what works well and what doesn't. Your investments can become collateral for business loans, so that can give you leverage when starting your business, but keep in mind many business fail within the first few years and the bank can call your loans at any time meaning you can be forced to sell some or all of your investments to cover the loans. Business is a risky business so you need to learn to identify and manage risk. And since you will be in a business for profit you need to quantify risk in financial terms. It would be a good idea to talk to a financial advisor who understands business risk to help you tune your thinking for that.

Consider reading books like the E-Myth that describe the difference between "owning a business" that is just you having a job by yourself and "owning a business" that involves you growing the business by adding employees. Doing the latter takes a lot more work early on but you have to work on your business (growing and expanding it) at least as much if not more than you work in your business.

I recall a Dave Ramsey episode many years ago (back when I used to listen to him) where someone was asking about buying an electrical business and he asked some pointed questions about the number of employees, number of clients, growth expectations, etc. It turned out it was a sole proprietor. His response was (paraphrased) "They aren't trying to sell you a business, they are trying to sell you a job because they are tired of doing it."

There's a huge difference between the two. Understand the difference and decide if you want to work in a job as a sole proprietor (which is totally fine) or if you want to build a business. Two different skillsets are required. You can be the best tradesman and suck at managing, accounting, HR, taxes, payroll, leadership, marketing, etc. Or vice-versa. Only you can decide.

Good luck!
 
@tillerman5320 Thanks a ton. I do plan on a very general investment, as safe as it comes. And I hope to have a business with other employees. As for the management aspect of the job, I also plan on taking classes at a college while working in my 20's so that I understand a lot more of the marketing and behind-the-scenes work while getting an education in management. And even in case the idea of a contract or electrician fails, I still have a degree.
 

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