Cebu Pacific lost ₱24.9-B in 2021

[ignissus]

Happy Thursday, Barkada --​

The PSE gained 1 point to 7009 ▲0%​

Thank you to all the Barkadans that reached out by email, DM, Twitter, Reddit, and Facebook to wish me well, and to encourage me to take the time needed to get over the illness and regain my strength. I appreciate your warmth and understanding! I was quickly overwhelmed by your messages of support, which is such a wholesome problem to have. Maraming maraming salamat po!

I'm happy to report that I'm feeling better, that none of my other family members appeared to catch what I had, and that life is basically back to normal. Fantastic outcome.

I'm going to be playing bit of catch-up today, so not that much of a deep dive, but we'll get right back into the swing of things as quickly as possible.

▌In today's MB:​

• Philippine Airlines will have suspension lifted on March 28
• Cebu Pacific lost P24.5 billion last year; worse than 2020
• North Star Meat Merchants plan P4.5 billion July IPO
• Synergy Grid declared a Q1 dividend with a 7.7% annualized yield
• AllDay Marts FY21 net income up 80%; stock down 48% from IPO close

▌Daily meme | Subscribe (it's free) | Today's email​

▌Top 3 MB indices:​

 POGO Gaming    ▲3.86%
 Connectivity   ▲2.85%
 Fast Food      ▲2.35%

▌Bottom 3 MB indices:​

 Cement         ▼3.31%
 Logistics      ▼2.02%
 #COVID-19      ▼0.45%

▌Main stories covered:​

• [NOTES] Quick updates from around the market...
  • Philippine Airlines [PAL 6.05 suspended] [link] resubmitted its FY19 and FY20 financial statements, this time supported by an auditor’s unqualified opinion. PAL gets a passing grade on the accuracy of its financial statements, but the auditor still thinks that “material uncertainties exist that may cast significant doubt on the Group’s ability to continue as a going concern”. That’s one way of putting it. The PSE will lift PAL’s trading suspension on March 28.
  • Cebu Pacific [CEB 43.40 ▲2.60%] [link] teases ₱24.9 billion FY21 net loss. That’s actually 10% worse than FY20, when it lost ₱22.2 billion. Passengers haven’t returned, many countries are wading through a new round of Omicron infection, fuel prices are through the roof... but despite that, CEB thinks it will get back to pre-COVID domestic capacity (not profitability, that’s important) by the end of June of this year. Ambitious? Feels ambitious. Let's watch and see. Worth looking at other jurisdictions to see if there are any models we can use to predict how this might progress for CEB.
  • North Star Meat Merchants [NSTAR 10.00 pre-SEC] [link] filed for a ₱4.5 billion IPO. Tentative offer period in June, with listing in July. The meat trader supplies product to SM markets and the Waltermart Group, and considers its competitive advantage to be its “end-to-end cold chain infrastructure.” I’m going to be watching this one closely, because this could be the first of the private cold storage companies to go public. Very interested to do a deeper dive on this in the future, once I get a look at the prospectus.
  • Globe [GLO 2408.00 ▲0.84%] [link] plans to IPO its “shared services” provider subsidiary, Asticom, “within 5 years” to fund its portfolio expansion. Asticom provides staffing, platform, and logistics services for companies in the Ayala Family’s ecosystem. This one is interesting, I want to know more, but a lot can happen in 5 years. When I said I wanted GLO to IPO more of its subsidiaries, I was talking about the explosive-growth fintech one!
  • Synergy Grid [SGP 11.36 ▲0.35%] [link] declares a ₱0.22/share dividend for Q1 of this year, up from ₱0.20/share that it declared in the same period last year. At SGP’s closing price of ₱11.36/share, this ₱0.22/share dividend, annualized, represents a yield of approximately 7.7%. That’s not bad.
  • AllDay Marts [ALLDY 0.47 ▲4.44%] teases FY21 results with net income up 80% y/y. Manny V. said that the results “validate” ALLDY’s “value proposition” (he had said that ALLDY’s initial IPO result validated the offer price: ooops), and his daughter said that ALLDY’s results “befit” ALLDY’s first year on the PSE. It’s hard to see how 80% overperformance “befits” a stock that is down 48% from its 52-week high of ₱0.90/share, and down 22% from its IPO price of ₱0.60/share.
    

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[ignissus]

So much love from this sub. Thanks everyone that reached out to check in on my well-being. I'm feeling better now, but your messages were very nice to read and perked me up during the crappy days of Monday/Tuesday...

 

[lovingheart88]

@ignissus welcome back MB!

 

[ignissus]

@lovingheart88 Thank you! Good to BE back!

 

[julie7474]

@ignissus You know what they say about how to become a millionaire in the airline business. Start as a billionaire. Warren Buffett I think but then every stock quote supposedly comes from him.

 

[tdh86]

@ignissus Nagtataka talaga ako sa airlines. Parang never kumikita. pero gusto gusto nilang mag operate?

 

[target1019]

@tdh86 Kaya pala yung customer service ng Cebu Pac eh chat bot nalang

 

[tdh86]

@target1019 Kahit naman sa globe Haha.

Kung gusto mo ng tao by sched tapos may slot pa.

 

[iahawkette]

@tdh86 Less salaries paid ez moniez

 

[target1019]

@tdh86 Sino sa mga greedy motherfucker na yan ang nagpasimula ng ganyang meta. Sobrang nakaka stress kapag may issue ka eh.

 

[thesavvy]

@ignissus Hey, glad to hear you're back and well without any complications to anyone else!

Something interesting to discuss and I'm also wondering about is FMETF. A lot of people on this sub recommend it for long-term investing via PCA (myself included), but it hasn't been gaining traction at all. I think there's a disconnect on what an ETF should be vs. people's understanding of it. But at the same time, it's also odd how the NAVpu almost mimics the movement of the PSEi but hasn't disbursed dividends since mid-2018. For example, shouldn't the NAVpu be higher relative to PSEi because PSEi doesn't price in dividends, while FMETF should?

 

[ruthchirie]

@thesavvy The dividends the fund receives are used in the various expenses related to the fund. It also helps add some additional value to the Net Assets of the fund, reflecting in the NAVPU.

If you were to look at a 5 year chart, it's actually for a slightly higher return than the index it tracks. Given the current PSEI dividend yield is at 1.75% (give or take), you'd get better returns buying FMETF than buying into the index per se.

https://imgur.com/P037JOd

 

[thesavvy]

@ruthchirie I think this is what should be discussed more in circles when comparing FMETF vs. UITFs because these are the underlying things that not many people will realize

 

[prexioc]

@ignissus Kay siguro nag sale

 

[twippoh66]

@prexioc Tapos down website

 

[gc612]

@ignissus Welcome back MB!

 

[ignissus]

@gc612 Thank you! Good to be back!

 

[tanglewood]

@ignissus Welcome back MB.

Baka pwede magrequest ng info about DDMPR.

Lately, hey were reaching all-time lows.

They released their reinvestment plan last Tuesday.

Are we looking at something positive? Or we (bought at IPO) still have to wait for year 4 to break even?

 

[ignissus]

@tanglewood There's no info from DDMPR. The re-investment plan was DD's re-investment plan, it has nothing to do with DDMPR. It's just a list of things that DD plans to do with the money it made on selling the DDMPR shares, to help evidence its compliance with the REIT Law.

I don't know what to think about DDMPR. Corporate behavior is big for me, and to this point, I have no reason to think that they're going to improve. I think the CentralHub thing was originally intended for DDMPR, but now DDMPR's path forward is unclear now that Jollibee wants in on the action.

 

[tanglewood]

@ignissus

There's no info from DDMPR. The re-investment plan was DD's re-investment plan, it has nothing to do with DDMPR. It's just a list of things that DD plans to do with the money it made on selling the DDMPR shares, to help evidence its compliance with the REIT Law.

Thanks, so the REIT law that requires them to reinvest the proceeds they received from selling the shares doesn't necessarily mean that they will reinvest it to add additional revenues for the REIT?

They can invest it in other companies that will not be beneficial to the REIT?