@a_aron1011 lol, hello again. =)
No, not yet. I will use IEO for my argument as I mainly see oil via a macro lens. For company-specific analysis IMHO the main factor is leverage, which OXY has tons and thus it's being reflected only now via massive rises because the debate around its viability has finally been settled (this is just opinion)
For IEO, 2017-2020 were fairly bad years, since oil hovered around $60 which is not great for shale producers. Right now, IEO is around the range where it was during this time and has only recently surpassed it. If the prospects for oil itself were lukewarm, then yes, I'd say current prices would be a good exit point, but if anything, prospects for oil prices over the past 3 weeks have increased dramatically.
Oil rises when things are going to shit. I remember oil prices during the Iraq war, it seemed the more incompetent GWB proved himself to be, the more oil prices rose. Putin even sent him a get well card after a surgery he got. IMHO whatever is going on in eastern Europe right now is going to dwarf in tragedy and utter catastrophe what occurred in Iraq, and this is bullish for oil, especially given Russia's central position as a major supplier. I would not be surprised if we surpassed the last record of $140 before Russia is done with what it is doing, which means IEO will likely pass $100 if not much higher during this period. My plan is to re-evaluate at that point. I re-leveraged shortly before we had this discussion.
IIRC this was the thread where we had the debate about oil's popularity. As you have probably noticed recently, for something like oil, the higher it goes, the more unpopular it gets.
