@climpah True. Right now the 20 year real yield is 1.5%. It is reasonable to believe that there is still some reward for taking risk in stocks because real earnings can grow much faster than 1.5%/year over the long term.
@pamelaquezada This has been my plan. My 401K money goes in broad indexes twice a month. Outside that I am building up cash with plans to scale into the market later. It is a gamble, but I feel the odds are good the Fed's actions will eventually take its toll on the market and I can buy in lower.
@babygirl2427 I don't think this is a bad take but I think you should slightly adjust your logic. I wouldn't try to predict where the markets head...
However, I think it's reasonable to say things are very risky right now and there are many unknowns that might make the markets swing in either direction. If you're uncomfortable with that then investing your capital into bonds, treasuries, savings accounts, etc is an appropriate move.
I just wouldn't assume either way where markets may head...
@neannajo5 Confident enough of scalping the crap out of a couple companies. I’m not holding shares overnight for a while. If those companies I’m scalping go to a specific price range I will definitely go long. The risk is not worth it for me as of today.
@pamelaquezada When did you start this strategy? I was thinking similar types of thoughts when S&P was in the 3600 range, but reminded myself that I'm not smart enough to time the market and just held on. That happened to work out.
Are you beating the market? Do you expect to continue to do so long term due to your timing strategy?
@neannajo5 I went all in TSLA as soon as JPow said QE two months after the March 2020 crash. Sold all TSLA shares in November 2021 shortly after Jpow eluded to QT and rate hikes starting in 2022. I still continued to invest in my retirement as I’ve been doing since 2012 when I started working.
In summer of 2022 I saw that SPY was getting hammered and trading in the $360s so I got in in Apple, Google, Amazon and Tesla. Miraculously I timed the bottom and in a few weeks sold the bear rally top. I’ve been using those profits to scalp the market this year with great success. I’m just managing risk since I plan to pay off my mortgage early (bought in summer of 2016) by end of July 2023. That will free a lot of cash flow and I will definitely be going long with the money I set aside for my taxable brokerage account from that point on. I know I’ve gotten lucky a couple times now so I’m definitely not going to get greedy now.
@pamelaquezada You have 2 paragraphs of greed followed by a single sentence saying you won’t get greedy.
And yet, with all this “success” you haven’t earned enough to pay off your home yet? I gotta say if I were that “skilled” to time all those tops and bottoms, I’d have several houses by now.
If you are ahead, I’d suggest taking your own advice and quitting while you can.
@jthree Wow what a hater. Paying off a house in 7 years is a big deal to me. Making over $100K in profits after taxes “timing the market” using common sense and not fighting the Fed has also worked out for me.
@pamelaquezada Honestly, for a long term horizon, that shouldn't matter. You can't time the market. If you are way out from needing the funds, DCA'ing into the market is really the only time-tested proved strategy over the long haul, despite short term fall backs.
