US January PPI 6.0% y/y vs 5.4% expected and US initial jobless claims 194K versus 200K estimate

[tacarbon]

@freebytruthjohn832 "Great news! The Doctor says the cancer is growing at a slower rate!"

 

[rania]

@tacarbon Great analogy. You forgot the second paragraph where the doctor informs you that if the cancer was growing at 1/3 it’s rate you’d be perfectly healthy.

 

[tacarbon]

@rania Great news indeed! The only thing left to do is to reduce the rate of its growth by 66% and also ignore the damage it has already done!

 

[tinkywinky]

@tacarbon Seriously what fantasy about inflation you Americans have? Prices are never coming down. Unless you tank your economy you will never se a "correction" of prices that increased with inflation. Sure there will be the occasional sale where business seek to shed stock that couldn't be sold due to them overvaluing the price.

But business never reduce prices after inflation, what will hapens is that wages will follow inflation and if inflation it's a normal rate then everything its great.

 

[flyboy2610]

@tinkywinky

Seriously what fantasy about inflation you Americans have?

something something "American dream"

something something "have to be asleep to believe it"

 

[resjudicata]

@freebytruthjohn832

Lastly, while deflation is Gen z's wet dream, it's a nightmare for the economy.

Disinflation after 33% inflation is not a nightmare, there is no disinflation either. Inflation only at 6%. Congratutaltions US is now a third world hellhole.

 

[resjudicata]

@retiefff We'll be fine lol

 

[seeburger]

@retiefff Thanks for pasting lagging statistics, sprinkling in your informed opinion, and ignoring the leading indicators released this week. I learned so much!

For those who care to actually learn, the OP forgot a few tidbits.

Increased producer prices don't always equate to higher consumer prices, it can also lead to margin contraction.

Goods producers reported input cost increases accelerated for the first time in 10 months while their own price increases slowed dramatically. Prices received index fell by 50%, the lowest reading since February 2021

You say

Employment data remains solid

You must know something that these surveyed CEOs don't. Because they're pushing the index into recessionary territory.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index plunged to -24.3 in February of 2023, from -8.9 in January, compared to market expectations of -7.4. It was the sixth consecutive month that manufacturing activity remained below pair and the lowest reading since May 2020.

The Empire Manufacturing released yesterday says

Employment levels declined for the first time since early in the pandemic (-6.6 vs 2.8), and the average workweek shortened for a third consecutive month Chart

Would you look at that! You also failed to mention:

Philly Fed New Orders in the United States decreased to -13.60 points in February from -10.90 points in January 2023 and remained in the negative territory for the ninth consecutive month

But I'm sure it's irrelevant.

As for January data:

• January is in many ways a highly unusual month due to revisions of seasonal adjustments. Really good thread here. He concludes that the disinflationary process will continue. But I'm sure the OP will discredit this.
• January data is historically unreliable.

 

[allyb]

@seeburger I'm always surprised by how mean this sub can be.

 

[jen907907]

@allyb I’m not.

Sense of intellectual superiority does wonders to people /s

 

[bkcutler7]

@jen907907 It is fascinating I say

 

[pamelaquezada]

@retiefff One thing is being in autopilot in your 401k retirement investments where you always put let’s say, 15% of your paychecks every month regardless of what happens out there. However, starting new long positions in your taxable brokerage account is not worth the risk when you consider the macro environment. I believe the market will want to go back to SPY $400 and lower in a few months unless CPI and other inflation indicators miraculously come way down.

 

[al12]

@pamelaquezada So don’t go long because the market might dip 2.5%?

 

[climpah]

@al12 The question isn't if to go long, but what to go long on. Do you think the markets from this point forward will beat 4 - 5% yields in the next 1 - 30 years?

 

[danbuter]

@climpah In the next 1 year no. In the next 30 years yes.

 

[bpdavid]

@danbuter The only way inflation can be fixed is with higher taxes.

The problem with high interest rates is that they balloon the debt.

 

[foxyroxy]

@bpdavid You should vote accordingly. The Fed has no control over tax legislation.

 

[bpdavid]

@foxyroxy The country is fucked regarding taxation.

Also companies are always finding loopholes.

 

[foxyroxy]

@bpdavid They didn't before 1982

 

[bpdavid]

@foxyroxy Yeah, but it seems like companies nowadays are changing geographic locations in order not to pay taxes.

Everyone is competing to attract these companies.