US CPI 7.1% YoY vs 7.3% expected, 0.1% MoM vs 0.3% expected

[arjunsuresh]

@dmit5487ivan

This chart shows that most of that 7.1% in Chart 1 happened 6 months ago and earlier. For the past 5 months, inflation is slower.

Risk on, lads

 

[dvcochran]

@agnosticusmexicanus Everyone thinking inflation has been beaten and that rates will be cut soon leads to all the behaviour that pushes inflation up in the first place. I still think this has got a long way to go yet, and a lot more interest rates rises here than people are expecting.

 

[beautifulbaker12]

@dvcochran You only need to look at credit card debt to know we are nowhere near finished

 

[clairep]

@dvcochran Yeah, but - most people don’t have the money to engage in the behaviours that pushes inflation up again, right now. My mortgage is so high, I’m skint!

 

[dvcochran]

@clairep most people don't have a mortgage

 

[dmit5487ivan]

@agnosticusmexicanus

https://imgur.com/Zea1NU3

Note that CPI Shelter chart that's a third of the CPI.

Rent growth in advertised rents has already slowed dramatically in US.

https://imgur.com/XJfvKOR

It just takes months for CPI rents (which measure actual rents paid) to reflect advertised rents, because it takes months for leases to be resigned.

 

[masterduckie]

@agnosticusmexicanus Seasonally adjusted figures since June 30:

July: 0.0%

Aug: 0.1%

Sept: 0.4%

Oct: 0.4%

Nov: 0.4%

Average over 5 months: 0.2% per month
Extrapolated annually: 2.4%

Things are looking good.

 

[cantgetright]

@masterduckie You can't really extrapolate seasonally adjusted figures like that.

In reality, Dec, Jan and Jun are the historically highest seasonally adjusted CPI rates in the USA.

I'm not arguing that things are starting to look under control, all things being equal. Just that it isn't as rosy a 2.4% just yet.

 

[nguyenthanhdi]

@masterduckie Yeah pretty good, I would be surprised if the FED increase next time round based on these results. If anything it looks like they might have overadjusted.

 

[theislandpoet]

@agnosticusmexicanus Uh oh. AusFinance about to have a collective aneurysm. Lots of claims of falsified data and “my groceries are still more expensive” incoming

 

[rewind2grace]

@theislandpoet Yeah, 7.1% more expensive

 

[resjudicata]

@theislandpoet

Uh oh. AusFinance about to have a collective aneurysm. Lots of claims of falsified data and “my groceries are still more expensive” incoming

1: It's US CPI, not Australian.

2: US CPI food at home increased again by another 0.5% for the month to put it up 12% year on year

So... quite the hot take coming from a person insinuating that used car prices dropping in the US makes groceries in Australia cheaper.

 

[scaredvvv]

@resjudicata Well if food was 0.5% then annualised, it comes in at 6% so still well under 12% and clearly headed in the right direction. Also food is not the biggest expense for most people, shelter is.

 

[resjudicata]

@scaredvvv

Well if food was 0.5% then annualised, it comes in at 6% so still well under 12% and clearly headed in the right direction.

A car accelerates from a stand still through a school zone. Just before a crossing, the driver lifts his foot to 9/10ths accelerator instead of the foot to the floor. The car hits a kid on the crossing. But because he was at 9/10ths throttle instead of full throttle, he only hit him at 108km/hr instead of 110km/hr. The car exits the school zone at a speed of 130km/hr instead of 135km/hr had he kept the accelerator floored.

But because the driver slightly reduced his rate of acceleration, come sentencing, the judge took into consideration that he was headed in the right direction.

That's you. That's your understanding of how this works.

 

[jjddww]

@resjudicata Correct. My previous reply got auto-deleted.

But seeing people mock others who are struggling to deal with 10+% YoY food price increases is peak AusFin.

People here don't touch grass. Every day I visit this sub that observation becomes more self evident.

 

[mushroom]

@jjddww You literally make 10 comments in every thread and you tell people to touch grass?

 

[jjddww]

@mushroom You're one of the worst offenders I that regard.

I still remember that lengthy comment you made demanding my qualifications and a and a full explanation from me after I made a 1 line comment saying I had a highly uncertain guess that the Aus CPI read could be a tiny bit hotter last quarter because of the end of fuel excise relief.

You think that's normal behaviour from someone that touches grass? Losing their shit over a throwaway 1 line comment on the internet?

Get over yourself.

 

[mushroom]

@jjddww I play in one of the higher AFL leagues (one level below state), so yeah I literally touch grass 6 days of the week. So what your hobbies mate? Bet you don’t even have one outside of the internet.

 

[mickcee]

@jjddww Who is struggling exactly? Job market booming, everyone is employed, wages rising. I try my best to look for signs of struggle but every shop, restaurant, holiday destination, commercial district are absolutely packed. Tradies are booked out for months to years, huge queues for new cars, consumer electronics flying off the shelves.

Mortgage delinquencies at record lows, employment at record lows, wages growth at decade highs.

If you think people are struggling I have to ask, have you been outside? Have you looked at any data besides headline inflation numbers?

 

[jjddww]

@mickcee Larger families and those with mortgages.

Consumer sentiment is at levels not seen since COVID lows or the GFC and spending is falling. Rate hikes are working and demand destruction is occurring.