US CPI 7.1% YoY vs 7.3% expected, 0.1% MoM vs 0.3% expected

[agnosticusmexicanus]

Previous reading was 7.7% YoY and 0.4% MoM

AUDUSD has moved from 0.6780 to 0.6860 as of time of posting.
S/P March23 futures moved from 4050 to a high of 4180 (+3.2%) immediately off the figure, now resting about halfway up at 4120 (+1.6-1.7%).

 

[turnkeyforex]

@agnosticusmexicanus Recession cancelled

 

[mickcee]

@turnkeyforex There was never going to be a recession to cancel. Literally every piece of doomer news was a nothing burger. I called it!

 

[deafmommy]

@mickcee inflation is 7.1%, and it’s good news. What kind of delusional world are you living in

edit: in America, soz

 

[n0bodee]

@deafmommy I think annualised the inflation in the past month is something like 2.5%. That's what matters. These numbers like 7.1% will always be high because we've just had a period of very strong inflation. Monthly changes show a better picture of what is happening right now, and it's looking positive.

 

[schawinga]

@deafmommy It's a sign of slowing inflation.

 

[bethann]

@deafmommy markets are forward thinking sir

 

[giantgardener]

@agnosticusmexicanus Yeeeeewwwww. Let the debt binge re-commence!!!

 

[torrako]

@giantgardener I'm jacked.

JACKED TO THE TITS.​

 

[hman]

@torrako I love that scene. My favourite movie.

 

[judd04]

@hman Me too. Can weirdly watch it on repeat. Lucky it's on multiple streaming services so I can flick between them even if one takes it away.

 

[polygon]

@agnosticusmexicanus I am calling bottom. The crisis of 2022 is over.

 

[jjddww]

@polygon I agree with you (pending earnings next year).

 

[beatye]

@polygon If it’s the bottom it’s not a soft landing… it’s not even a landing.

 

[the_morrighan]

@polygon Agree. Now it’s crash crisis of 2023. Strap in.

 

[peacemaker2018]

@the_morrighan remove the stone of shame

attach the stone of triumph!

 

[joshua119]

@polygon Oh, but I wanted to be the bottom!
Ok ill top this time then, but next time Im bottom

 

[dmit5487ivan]

@agnosticusmexicanus There's a bit of an ongoing thing between inflationistas and disinflationistas, figured I'd summarise a bit, just one aspect of it.

Chart 1 - annual inflation history

https://imgur.com/jcPl3Yg

That chart has a bad Y axis for my purposes - it would be better if it started a zero, but just imagine it does. Inflation in US is at 7.1%. That's very high, miles above the 2% US target, nowhere near.

Chart 2 - monthly inflation history

https://imgur.com/jQZvEut

This chart shows that most of that 7.1% in Chart 1 happened 6 months ago and earlier. For the past 5 months, inflation is slower.

 

[kara1991]

@dmit5487ivan So does this mean yoy inflation drops off a cliff in 2023 (I mean in theory, provided no other shocks etc) since yoy will begin being baselined against the higher prices of 2022?

Historically does yoy inflation plummet once you hit the anniversary of say the first rate hike + whatever months delay there is for impact?

 

[dmit5487ivan]

@kara1991 "Base effects" are a thing, but it depends on how long the inflation episode lasts. Prices can just continue increasing. I mean, our reference episodes, like the '70s that people talk about, predate the current inflation targeting regimes.

If this keeps up though, then, yeah, it'll just mechanically drop by roughly the difference between the month that falls out of the 12 window and the latest month, every month.