@cyau Yep, these gains are greatly helped by total strangulation of volatility..... This year has had fairly low volatility. But with all the algos doing trading, I figure a flash crash is possible.
@clintjohnhampton I know a friend who has been out of the market since 2012. He admits that it was a mistake in retrospect to be out of the market. But he can't buy in now because he'll be buying at the peak and there's bound to be a recession soon. So basically, he admits that he was wrong but insists that this time it'll be different. It's been a few years now with the same story.
@dolor That's why anytime you decide to pull out and go to cash and wait for a crash (which, for the record, you should not do), you should at least set a condition for when you'll buy back in even if there's no crash. Otherwise, you're going to eventually end up like your friend. Even if you did it correctly once, all it takes is one slip-up if you keep trying to do this, and you're out of the game.
@mrorvelle Even with a recession there's no guarantee that stocks will go back down to 2012 levels, which means you'd still come out ahead going 100% stocks from 2012-now instead of all cash
@hugotaylor70 Wait is this how people imagine the end looks like?
Cause it sure as shit doesn't look like everything is collapsing.
Point being you would still better off buying expensive assets today than 5-10-20 years out. Recession are just discount sales, but that doesn't mean you should stop buying everything.
@clintjohnhampton There was a long comment in r/investing from 6 months ago when the market dipped:
This market is going to get a lot worse, approaching if not a full-blown depression, and its going to happen for several reasons. (EDIT: Not immediately, but within the next two years) - source
@dandelion10 That is a good comment. I have no doubt he is right about most of that. Hindsight is 20/20 in this case I guess and he may have gotten his timeline off slightly. There are a lot of factors that have gone into why the market has rallied so well and it may extend into 2020 for all we know.
well but if you give that guy room about timeline, then of course eventually he'll be right that there's a recession. But he specifically said "within 2 years" and ended by saying where he keeps his money:
My current position. I pulled out of the market entirely 6 months ago. I'm holding 5-10% in precious metals, and the rest in cash.
@chris151 I really hope the lineup of Democrats were just pandering to their more sycophantic base during the debates... somehow soft communism doesn’t seem like a good thing for the markets.
@clintjohnhampton It'll be great for Stryker and big Pharma when taxpayers are buying healthcare for literally anyone. And banks will get an instant 1.3 Trillion when student loan debt is forgiven...wait... I thought they hated banks and big Pharma...
