@stthomasmore The "cash rate to 12%, all else equal" scenario was picked to roughly match what would be required to match his prediction which would be a 60% drop by now. Yeah - not gonna happen.
@joshslusser Obviously nothing has zero probability, but I'd bet for example at 40:1 against >12% and 30:1 against >10% cash rates in the next 2 years. And most of that probability mass is of unexpected brand new things happening, not predicated on the current response to inflation. At a point the probability is low enough that it's OK to say "absolutely no way" even though it's not literally impossible.
@joshslusser Happy to check in, and happy to be wrong and figure out where I went wrong! People should be accountable for their predictions...instead of getting super defensive and blocking anyone who dares to set a reminder, not naming names or anything.
Whilst we're making predictions, my over–under for the peak rate would be just the median of that survey of economists, at 2.85%. Would not rule out the interbank futures market being correct at 3.5%, but not many other people seem to believe them and I find the case from the CBA convincing that that's too high - and I hold out faith the RBA will realise this.
@jesuslover07 I agree. I’m not having a dig at you. I’m actually genuinely interested to see where we are in two years time and how these predictions age.
I only hold the Uber bears to their predictions. Telling people property will crash 60% or apartments will be free etc is negligent and anyone that’s listened to those bears over the last decade has cost them money.
@joshslusser Yeah, I'm definitely with you there. Happy to let any wrong predictions slide as long as people are doing their best and being friendly, and I likewise mostly set reminders just for curiosity. Gonna rub the bear's face in his own poop as much possible though.
