Return on Investment of Solar Installation

[salkz]

This post is inspired by a recent question (that got removed by mods lol) and the post linked below that detailed living with a solar installation for a month. So here, I would detail my own experience; Detailing the initial cost, how much money it makes a year, when I'd hit breakeven, and the potential return over it's lifetime. I'll try to be as detailed as possible, but if you have questions, I'll do my best to answer them.

https://www.reddit.com/r/phinvest/comments/r75erj

WARNING : My setup is DIY but this is my field and I am well aware of every aspect of this system. If you intend to put one up, PLEASE CONSULT A PROFESSIONAL. The energies you are dealing with here are well beyond the KILL YOU and BURN YOUR HOUSE DOWN territory.

I have a 5.4Kwp hybrid setup coupled with a 10Kwh lifepo4 battery. Initial CAPEX was about 262k. As stated in my warning. I designed the entire system myself and guided the laborers on how to install the entire thing. Took 4 guys a day to get the panels mounted on the roof and about 4 days working with the electrician to reroute my main panel and get everything wired up.

• Panels - 100k approx
• Hybrid Inverter - 58k
• 200AH 48V LifePo4 Battery - 72k
• Accessories (Cables, Connectors, Mounting, ATS, etc..) - 15k approx
• Labor - 12k approx
• Transpo - 5k approx

https://imgur.com/GNOcwoM

• Based on the monitor app, my system has been up for 378 days (I wasn't living in the house the first few weeks) and produced 8.81MWH of electricity for a total value of approximately 97k. This is based on production and is inaccurate because it does not take into consideration losses and round trip efficiency. So to err on the safe side, let's assume that the value of the electricity generated is just 80k for this time period.
• So based on CAPEX(262k) and annual revenue (80k) I'd hit breakeven in 3.275years
• What's the potential return? Solar panels last for decades but degrade by about 0.5% per year. If nothing breaks over the course of 30 years, I will get a maximum return of 2.2M or 8.45x my initial CAPEX

https://imgur.com/Sv73SuJ

• Here's what a typical day looks like. I am not able to maximize solar generation as characterized by the generation clipping before 2pm to match the load.

https://imgur.com/4mq0g4C

• Data over the past 30 days

https://imgur.com/xPjHHgD

• I just wanted to share that there was a power interruption in our area that lasted for 6hrs. I found it amusing that I did not notice the power go out and only noticed it now going over the data. Notice that the AC output is maintained at 230V while the grid voltage drops to 0V. This means that my system does not backfeed into the grid. This is critical as you or your installer can be held liable by Meralco for any injury caused to their linemen if you backfeed.

https://imgur.com/CXBgGTl

• My latest bill

https://imgur.com/hAuvoAu

• Showing off my home assistant dashboard. Lol. Designed it so that the battery card background turns red when there's a power interruption. This is supposed to go on the wall, but I still need to make the mounting system for it.

 

[zombieguy]

@salkz Thank you for sharing OP. You mentioned about degradation of the panels, but how about the battery degradation? I think that’s the part with the highest probability of failure/degradation.

 

[salkz]

@zombieguy Battery degradation is quite an interesting topic because it is still not very clearly established for LifFePo4 batteries, which seems to be the cutting edge for home storage. So far you see batteries rated for 2000/3000/4000/6500 charge discharge cycles. And most people seem to interpret this as the number of cycles before the battery is dead. But in the industry, the cycle rating indicates when the battery would lose 20% of it's capacity.

So for my case, after 2000 cycles, my battery should either be dead or still have 8kwh capacity left. I'm leaning more towards the latter since I've cycled it almost 400 times already and I'm still not seeing a noticeable degradation in capacity.

 

[lisasummer2012]

@salkz Can I request your assistance with ours? I just want to make sure we are not being scammed, we are installing and buying through a company called solar grace. 9kwp system with AE MD-132 series panels and some (I think he said) genixgreen lp4 batteries. 2 5kwh es-box12? From zwayn or something like that. The whole package is about 520k php.

Also anything you might add to help us keep from starting a fire or overcharging batteries etc etc. this is my first time using solar and I’m unsure where things could go wrong.

We also have a G2 series energy inverter idk if that’s helpful at all.

 

[sanngetal]

@salkz Have you considered the annual increase in electricity rate? Your solar generated electricity might be more expensive in 5 years making it more desirable

 

[salkz]

@sanngetal I did. But it felt like counting your chicks before they hatch. So I don't really consider it in calculations.

 

[peggyo]

@salkz can you recommend which professionals to ask? for grid-tie system? thanks in advance...

 

[salkz]

@peggyo You should check with local installers. Especially those that have already done installations with net metering.

 

[samickgirl]

@salkz Hi OP - thanks for the post! Will go through your links and hope you don’t mind follow up questions currently building a house and was considering hybrid setup, but not sure if the hassle is worth it, especially with the “5-7 year battery life before replacement” that was cited to me.

(…though not like I have figures to make a rational decision to back it up…up to now I still don’t even have a load plan for basic quotations from providers )