My 300K portfolio to retire early. Feasible?

[annidon]

@wes40 Thanks again! I appreciate the feedback and perspective. And yeah I'm not married to using the word real. I get how that can be confusing because "real rate" is an actual term with meaning and my use of "real" just means "it's the correct historical nominal return so I'm gonna go with that real number".

On a side note, I think I also prefer not having to always do that math when I'm comparing different investments. I'd be worried I'd forget sometimes that I need to subtract 3-4% from any historical data.

Glad though that you don't see any blaring mistakes in the math though!

Cheers

 

[amenradio]

@jblavenderrose44 Thanks for the advice..!

 

[daltonwb]

@jblavenderrose44 Apartments are going to be $140,000 a year rent in 2063? No way.

 

[erickonasis]

@jblavenderrose44 I thought Japan was cheap when I was there. That was before the currency exhange rate jumped 50% so While it was cheap, now it its 50% cheaper. also they didnt get hit with 10% inflation

 

[jblavenderrose44]

@erickonasis True... I live in South East Asia... so Japan is on the highest end of the spectrum... I believe Singapore and Hong Kong are at the top... with Japan and Korea behind.

However, the quality of life is excellent with Japan.

 

[erickonasis]

@jblavenderrose44 Oh yea for sure it depends on where you stay as well. Tokyo wasn't cheap in any shape or form. Kagoshima was. I guess I also just loved to walk around Japan, making it fairly cheap for me as well. Lots of free stuff to do if you have a rail pass.

 

[solid25]

@jblavenderrose44 In the rural parts of Japan, the local government gives you free housing and utilities. All you have is food, upkeep, and transportation costs. Definitely livable for $2,500 or less a month.

 

[intheville]

@solid25 I live in Silicon Valley for $2.5K/month. I do not share an apartment.

 

[kindte]

@jblavenderrose44 Lmao

 

[trang0714]

@amenradio This is a terrible plan. Just terrible.

You can't depend on 10% returns. You'll fail spectacularly.

There are tons of calculators out there and the first one I plugged your numbers into showed a 3% chance of sucess.

Wait, I didn't put enough years in there. 0% chance of sucess.

 

[jaboi]

@trang0714 I actually laughed when he wants to retire early and his plan is 15% of his money into QQQ. I hope he’s ready to un-retire if he’s not lucky.

Really OP you should keep at it a bit, 33 is too young to retire and you don’t have nearly enough for the rest of your life. And you get one medical emergency? Donezo.

 

[opupi]

@jaboi It's not even that. He's assuming yearly 15% gains for QQQ and 12% for SPY. Even worse.

 

[amenradio]

@opupi Why is estimating QQQ 15% bad?

 

[opupi]

@amenradio How do you expect to average 15% returns? Are you just trolling now ?

 

[amenradio]

@opupi 15% is a reserved estimation, just to get a number. In the last 30 Years, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF obtained a 14.04% compound annual return, with a 23.92% standard deviation. In 2022, the ETF granted a 0.54% dividend yield. If you have better opinion why don’t you share it?

 

[beatrixrose]

@amenradio lmfao

 

[opupi]

@beatrixrose I don't know what to say anymore lol

 

[amenradio]

@opupi Bc you can’t provide any meaningful information?

 

[resjudicata]

@amenradio Your window of time is heavily skewed towards years with higher returns. Also forgot to deduct MER

 

[alkimizta2012]

@amenradio Even if QQQ earned 15% *on average* you're not withdrawing on average over x amount of years. You're withdrawing *every year* meaning if it's a down year, you're pulling out your principal to get to 30k, and will have less than 300k by the time it recovers. You'll never make the principal back because your plan is to withdraw 30k year year, so you'll have less and less every time there's a downturn.