Its a bit scary how easily the media is pushing the "property market bottom is here" agenda

[snlmommy]

...and some first home buyers are certainly eating it up with a bit more activity at open homes. In saying so I'm not seeing much of that eventuate in increasing sales/prices.

https://fb.watch/kUdoRRfppd/

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business...ttom-may-be-close/DU5NKTYQIFFUNPJR7FGTQ7PBRU/

Horrible one sided reporting with commentary from biased analysts.

With plenty of people to refix at much higher interest rates in the next 6 months, mortgagee numbers ticking up on trademe and incoming job losses as we move into a recession, I think there is still a decent bit down to go.

What do you think?

 

[kylefleming]

@snlmommy It's a sad reflection on the farcical way that NZ relies on housing to create wealth rather than making anything of value.

Inflation soars around the globe, interest rates look like they've got more room to go up and the nzd is in the shitter... We'll see how this plays out.

 

[kamigirl]

@kylefleming But if interest rates go up NZD becomes more valuable the reason it's dropped slightly is the RBNZ has hinted we've reached maximum OCR.

Also NZD is about average looking at it historically. Of the last 33 years only 14 years has it ever gone above .62 and a long way from the 0.4* we had in the early 2000s.

 

[inaus]

@kamigirl

long way from the 0.3 we had in the early 2000s.

You mean 0.4-0.45, right? I can only see one quick dip just below 0.4 ever.

 

[kamigirl]

@inaus yeah woops meant 0.4

 

[jeff2112]

@kamigirl Here is the graph of NZ vs US dollar over the last 10 years. We are low at the moment, and it dropped 4c in a week when Orr said they’d stopped raising.

A low dollar is inflationary, it make imports more costly. I think he will have to resume interest rate rises if everything else stays the same.

 

[kamigirl]

@jeff2112 Yes but if you look back before the GFC the NZD used to be a whole lot lower.

pre-2008 the NZD yearly average was 0.42-0.7 and just doing a dirty average over time since 1992 it's been 0.66.

We're slightly under the average yearly level the last 30 years but hardly 'in the shitter'.

 

[broken649]

@kylefleming I always find it ironic that the "business friendly" political parties encourage and protect real estate investment - pretty much to the exclusion of everything else, which means that we don't get adequate investment in real businesses that would actually help the NZ economy.

 

[redsox370724]

@broken649 Most of SMB funding is secured against an OOP/IP. But I guess you don't own a business so unaware of such a small detail.

 

[broken649]

@redsox370724 Dick

 

[theendishere]

@redsox370724 People can't start a business because our only investment is property. The tail is wagging the dog

 

[jackjakkals]

@kylefleming Yeah NZD looking nasty.

Great if you have overseas income though!