I think Auckland housing prices will continue to fall by 15%-25%

[ceraphima]

@paimei Agree with you that max pain hasn't even kicked in yet. Where did you get the 10.7% from?

 

[paimei]

@ceraphima https://www.interest.co.nz/personal...t-and-vegetable-prices-annual-rate-food-price

 

[worldbandy]

@paimei Also check out stats nz website as they release figures on there every month/quarter depending on the data. Saves you having to look up media articles.

 

[ceraphima]

@paimei Cheers! Must've missed this one.

 

[jnpaapaamoakoheneameyaw]

@kalenebari Thank you for a well-prepared post.

 

[heyimeugene]

@jnpaapaamoakoheneameyaw Second this! Thanks for the time you put into it

 

[kalenebari]

It's good to see a lot of different ideas, it's a good thing to measure the decline, the decline will only end when the market panics. Immigration is now the last straw for house price bulls, but every time we look back at a bubble crisis in other countries, immigration has not been a major factor. Its increment cannot counteract the total decrease in demand.

 

[resjudicata]

@kalenebari To be fair we do have a very large amount of migration, per capita, in both directions. It's a much bigger factor than in other countries that experienced crashes. And right now, I don't think we really know what the net effect of migration will be - there will be a huge amount both inbound and outbound over the next twelve months. Hard to say which will be greater.

 

[runge12]

@resjudicata We do have high levels of immigration but so did Ireland leading up to and in the first year or so of their crash. From memory slightly higher than our average, but much of a muchness.

 

[resjudicata]

@runge12 Fair point! That's was a bit lazy of me, I know we have much higher migration than most developed countries, but Ireland is certainly one of the exceptions.

 

[jeffoh1990]

@resjudicata Working for a company that dips into transient migrant labour I can confirm that the cost of getting to NZ is a major hurdle vs other countries and the border is still essentially closed for the majority of visa classes

 

[augustatrillyon]

@kalenebari Yo? We already at 7.99 interest rates at anx

 

[edenstorm]

@kalenebari That's great and all but what I'm noticing so far is that houses of OK quality are holding in price.

Edit: I hope you're right but at the end of the day we won't be picking up houses in remmers and kohi for 500k.

 

[my_name]

@edenstorm Yep, I've been looking to buy for 7 months now in Akl and yet to see a real downturn. Good houses are still being snapped up within 1-3 weeks of listing date, and not at a big discount either.

I'm hoping I'll have more luck in 6 months time.

 

[cr0011]

@my_name Not so in the range I am looking at: 1.5 to 2 mill on the shore. Things are selling at 10-15% under CV (if they do sell)

 

[jewelforjesus]

@cr0011 That buys you a pretty nice place on the shore these days. Im looking around the 1.3 range and there is a lot of nice stuff for 1.3ish

 

[jakoblaj]

@cr0011 I have no where near enough for the shore. But if I did I’d gladly pay a premium for that area. Couldn’t care if it never went up in value - just living it in as an owner occupied would be amazing

 

[grey20]

@edenstorm When in market crisis, the properties on the market right now are most likely, people selling due to financial hardship, people selling their old home and moving to either downgrade or upgrade, good properties however mostly wont be selling at current market and will definitely hold off.

 

[ebonue]

@grey20 There are always people who need to sell and they drive the market.

Sellers who don't meet the market don't become sellers.

 

[heidisolonely]

@grey20 That's not true. My partner and are I looking to sell now so we can relocate closer to family. We're not under any financial stress, we just don't want a second property in the south island.