I’m wondering if anyone knows if $80k would be worth if I hadn’t touched for 8 years

[projectexodus]

I am about to blow my husband’s mind when he finds out what it would have been worth if we had just left it in stock instead of investing in the house.

The stock was Apple. How much has it grown at about 8 and and also 15 years ago?

Please forgive me for any errors in expectation or sound like I’m being petty. I am doing the best I can to not touch that money.

 

[b1inchrist]

@projectexodus This is an exercise in causing pain for no good reason. One can always look back and find something that got more return than what some other choice did. Just because Apple turned out to be high return during that particular time period doesn't make it the basis of future decisions. Why beat yourself (or your husband) up? Look forward, make the best decisions you can (seeing at all investing is gambling at heart), and enjoy your life.

 

[luckycookie51]

@projectexodus This exercise isn’t useful and also is way more complicated than you’re making it out to be.

1. Yes AAPL’s stock has taken off and in hindsight it wasn’t smart to sell but if it crashed no one would be saying anything like this.
2. He purchased a house, that has also appreciated quite a bit I hope.
3. If he didn’t buy a house he would have been paying rent for the last 8 (or 15 years).
4. He had peace of mind that he had a house and didn’t have to pay rent. Peace of mind is worth a lot of money.
5. Having a house may have allowed him to make other investments over the last 8-15 years he wouldn’t have been able to make if he were paying rent

All this may make either investment the smart move

 

[faithfully92]

@projectexodus Go to yahoo finance and type in AAPL, slide the filter around for the start date of the line graph of performance that it gives you, have it start 8 years ago and also 15 years ago.

 

[dens]

@projectexodus I wouldn’t do this. Hindsight is 2020. It may have increased 700% as one user said but would have had the guts to hold on that long?

Apple has done well but not every stock does. I can’t think of any famous examples recently but you would have lost it all if you were in Lehman Brothers in 2008 or Enron in 2001.

Neither of those mean anything about the market though. Invest in a good fund and don’t play with single stocks. Having held onto Apple and making a ton of money, if it happened, doesn’t make you a stock picking genius. Thinking that is a good way to get burned later. Having held onto a Lehman Brothers or Enron doesn’t mean the being in the market is bad. Don’t let it scare you into sitting on the sideline.

 

[catsaregorgeous]

@projectexodus And what about if you’d put all $800k on red at a roulette table in Las Vegas ten times in a row and won every time! Do you also run that calculation to flagellate yourself for not gambling more?

 

[resjudicata]

@projectexodus In February of 2013 (8 years ago) Apple was trading at $15 a share. Now it’s at $128. That’s about a 700% return.

I think your husband is going to be mad.

This is why I’m not a huge fan of real estate. The margins are much lower unless you’re flipping a house. But for regular real estate, the returns aren’t supposed to be super high, it’s more of a safe investment that pays steady equity/ cash flow

 

[pahky]

@resjudicata Does that take into account splits?

 

[resjudicata]

@pahky Yes, I used yahoo finance for my calculations and they adjust the stock split in there (Apple was trading at $500 before the stock split and on the chart it never shows Apple being $500 a share)

 

[solomonthepoor]

@resjudicata

This is why I’m not a huge fan of real estate.

I'm not, either, but I don't think it's fair to compare a single stock that's exploded in value against an entire industry.

Someone out there has certainly had a real estate deal that did better than the S&P over the last decade. Wouldn't make a compelling case for why real estate was better than investing in the market.

 

[resjudicata]

@solomonthepoor I’m not saying a single stock represents an entire industry nor was I saying the s&p500 is what I would invest in. All I said was that real estate (if you’re not flipping a house) has very low margins and takes decades to really see a good profit. Also, a stock that grows like Apple did is much more likely than a house or property doing the same thing. It’s also more time consuming and you have expenses related to the investment that eat away profit. How many times do you see real estate investments grow 700% in 8 years? Probably a few. Now count how many stocks? Hundreds.

That’s why I invest in stocks rather than real estate. I know people who are worth 8 figures from commercial real estate but it took them over a 15 years before they really made good money.

 

[resjudicata]

Most of the money made in real estate is through leverage and debt...

You put in $10, you borrow $200, you sell for $250. They then claim they made $50 off of $10. All of that sounds great until rates or valuations plummet.... I prefer stock as well, real estate guys are typically either your ultra frugal or ultra risky folks. To slow and yet to risky for me.

 

[thelordismighty]

@projectexodus Why would you want to do this? I'm honestly curious, because it sounds like you want to punish him, or just be right about it, and I don't understand the motivation behind your desire to "blow his mind" over something that, quite frankly, can't be changed now.

 

[vanessastudentresearcher]

@projectexodus Go look up portfolio visualizer and do the backtest tool

 

[resjudicata]

@projectexodus $80k in apple 8yrs ago would be around $16/share. you’d have around 5000 shares which is $630k roughly now, not accounting dividend reinvesting. 15yrs ago would’ve been $1.30/share so 58k shares and that’s $7.5mil, again, not including dividends. this accounts for the splits as well.

 

[jesus111]

@projectexodus stockchoker.com

Buying a home isn’t always the winning answer. I’m still renting, even though I do own property. Stocks and even safer, ETFs are incredible vehicles for preserving and increasing wealth. So glad you’re bugging him about what may have been a poor decision at the time.