@nottoosure We went through a mini boom-bust cycle from 2020-22 so it kinda sucks but we did benefit enormously from high stock prices. Remember all the startup folks with $1M TCs? Anyone who got in with a 2018-19 RSU grant did really well regardless of which company they went to.
That said this fiscal discipline probably won't last forever. They have to spend money to grow at some point. Either that or Elon is right and tech companies (both small and large) are truly bloated and they can go multiple years doing more with the same people. In the latter case we're screwed.
@francis24 I'm highly doubtful that we're at that period in tech. Every innovation where you can do more with less is followed by more competition and the need for even more developers. Doing more with less just means you have to compete with more start-ups who are more nimble.
@sviar That's the layman's rule of thumb and has never been an official metric. Unemployment numbers have to rise as well, for one. NIBR are the ones who call out recessions, always have and always will.
To the great frustration of bears, peppers and other doomsday maniacs
@youbetcha I disagree that the 'rest of us' are struggling. While I would say a good portion of low-income, younger Americans will struggle more with inflations, there are plenty of people out there who have seen:
Higher wages
Incredible home value appreciation
HYSA grow exponentially
Great returns on bonds/treasuries
Great returns in the stock market
A lot of older millennials and Gen X are in great spots, with the later on the verge of retirement.
Sure, their grocery bills got a lot higher, but they're returning 4-5% on their cash, which has easily been offsetting those rises, along with their raises and ability to take equity out of their homes on 2.6% interest rates.
These are the spenders. This is why GDP is growing as well as it is.
@ruella I make good money ($140K), have zero debt, own a home and live in a place with a pretty affordable cost of living … but my wages haven’t increased with inflation. My money doesn’t go as far as it did as the cost of everything is going up. People making less with student loans or who weren’t lucky enough to buy a home when rates were 3% are getting killed right now. Gen Z is absolutely screwed.
@youbetcha This is sort of the end game in a lot of developed capitalistic economies. South Korea is an example, where Samsung is over 20% of the whole country’s GDP. Obviously the US is less consolidated but same principle.
