@skitta If you look at the S&P 500–adjusted for inflation or not—and compare it to the rate of cumulative inflation over the last 100 years, the upturns are pretty similar. I’m far from an expert, but I wonder if the bull market we’ve seen these last two decades have actually been the market catching up to the last four to five decades of inflation. The rate of inflation for the USD made a very distinct uptrend starting around the 70s (
cumulative inflation graph). I’ve seen a lot of people talking about how unusually well the market has done the last 10 years, I think it can be extended back to the mid 90s, but I have yet to see anyone talk about the rate of inflation since the 70s. People are talking about how much worse inflation is getting now, but it has been very bad for a few decades now. I dunno, maybe I just don’t understand stuff, but it does look to me like the market is actually correcting upwards towards inflation. Still, I also think that could cause instability in the near future when you factor in retail investors who can’t stomach a downturn, which will feed into a deeper dip, kinda like what happened in ‘29. Ultimately, I think it looks like we’re facing a couple issues in the year(s) to come: government driven hyperinflation and a fearful market downturn. Like Germany and Hungary before it, though, I do think we’ll recover, we are still one of the largest economies in the world, the powers that be aren’t going to allow that to change. The questions are (1) how long will it take? And (2) will the powers that be survive our current social/political instability?
