Ford (F) P/E ratio is around 4 !

@brokenjohninchrist In addition to that, the PEG of Ford is so screamingly low, this is either undervalued as a beautiful deep value, or for an earnings snafu that distorts it's paper value.

Honestly I'd rather have a company that has a better chance to grow earnings.
 
@gaelsbee New CEO is the real deal. Quickly ramping up EV capacity (but years away). Still make good trucks that people want. BUT, I don't wanna hold automotive stocks during high inflation, recession, or God forbid... extended stagflation. Top line AND bottom line erosion. Frankly, I don't care who the automaker is: I don't want them now.
 
@peteboysma This sums it up for me. I exited most of my position even though I am still bullish on Ford. CEO has nailed it an I think they will be good in the long run.

I'm still holding some shares, but I sold all of my call options.
 
@thomsar I don't want to advise anyone to do anything, my friend. Just saying what I do - and why. But I have a fair amount of agriculture-related, high-quality tech (a certain high-end chip maker or 2), some pharma/biotech, and I'm currently holding a lot of energy positions (oil, natural gas and distribution). Most of the aforementioned generate plenty of cash, and profits. Many of them pay dividends. I'm more defensive than I've been in a long time. I need to add secular consumer staples to my mix, and looking for the right entry points. My energy positions have risk related to supply/demand, geopolitical shenanigans, governmental regulations/legislation, etc..
 
@tooltime Increasing prices is for sure what they'll do. Yet, there's a near 100% probability that each incremental increase decreases their available target market due to said rising prices. It's doubtful that salaries rise in direct proportion to vehicle price increases. For high fuel consumption vehicles (Ford makes their money from trucks), operating costs also factor in. Many things will begin to destabilize the economy in a high inflationary period. 'Cyclicals' - which are companies (automotive, for example) that are typically dependent upon steady, predictive monetary policy and low inflation - are sensitive to HIGH inflation. Consumers begin to curtail descretionary spending. When given the choice of buying food, utilities, shelter, and basic necessities - or a new vehicle - the vast majority choose to eat. It's that dramatically simple.

As the Fed tightens monetary policy to curtail inflation, interest rates rise, as this affects pretty much everything in the economy - from individual spending to the cost of corporate borrowing, it can trigger a recession. People pull back from spending, and the economy retracts. Unemployment increases, and major purchases plummet. That's why I don't want auto stocks now. But that's just my opinion.
 
@gaelsbee TBH, I am not totally surprised that Ford is at 4 and GM is under 7 and to me it is more indicative of risks to profitability rather than some screaming value.

The traditional autos are having delivery problems and higher interest rates have the potential to be very damaging. The 0% gravy train over 60-72 months looks like its pretty well over.
 
@skim "Traditional autos are having delivery problems"

1) everyone else is too, so it's not like the market share is being taken away,

2) vehicles are o e of those things everyone needs. Not being able to meet demand doesn't mean that demand migrates elsewhere like it would if a luxury good couldn't be manufactured. As Ford is able to ramp up production amd get costs back to MSRP there will be many people who skipped buying a car today but will buy one when prices come down. Ie, there is backed up demand and Ford -unless they are late to ramp up production- will benefit from it.
 
@imnotjokingwellnotmostly
  1. I don’t think having a similar market share of a smaller overall market (due to supply issues) really helps the value of Ford.
  2. If the cost to buy/finance increases people will just hold on to existing cars longer.
I would also add that if fuel prices stay high, Ford is in a tough spot because they are pretty much exclusively trucks and SUVs and the EV side doesn’t produce at a scale meaningful to the overall business yet. Their production mix might not line up with the demand mix very well in the short and medium term.
 
@xnihilistx Ford has basically made no money selling cars the past three years. About 90% of their net income from the past three years is due to them speculating in Rivian, a company that makes no money and is still valued at $47b. Rivian has a net margin of -8523.64% for the ttm so that's a thing. Their ttm eps is -18.18 per share while their share price is currently 52.01.

Ford is going to report a huge loss next quarter and no one is going to understand why because they didn't read Ford's annual report or 10-k. Is this a cult stock or something like Tesla now?
 

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