Dallas Fed: U.S. Likely Didn’t Slip into Recession in Early 2022 Despite Negative GDP Growth

[femalove]

@lalagata It's too much to ask people to read. A lot of people over 50 don't like reading.

 

[resjudicata]

@joyjoy1001 I mean, you should read the article and then comment on it to start off.

This reads like you didn't at all and then maybe did a bit after someone replied to you... This is how the comments don't reflect the actual content and people just bickering about what ever.

 

[trannamcomputer]

@lalagata The low employment combined with negative real GDP in the context of higher inflation implies to me that the problem is lack of labor. This economy has too much to do and not enough workers.

 

[samanthaanastasia]

@lalagata It’s not partisan. But you can tell when people are trying to make it partisan.

 

[jbloggs]

@lalagata Whatever they want to call recession at the end of the day people feel like they are in a recession and will adjust their spending accordingly. Hell Biden or Powell can even say we are in an economic boom people would still do what they feel like.

And 50% rise in cost of living in the last 2 years doesn't feel like economic boom but more like economic burden

 

[aravis85]

@lalagata It's written in stone that the top post will always be some unhelpful, smug, snarky nonsense though, so here we are. There's nothing 'partisan' about the word recession at all, in fact it has a technical definition.

 

[benjaminhu]

@joyjoy1001 Not arbitrary.

 

[willm]

@joyjoy1001 Call it a recession or not, but fed's actions seems to be working. Economy is cooling, gas prices are dropping (under $4 in my city today), housing prices dropping, while job growth continues. Whatever you call it, it seems to be exactly what we need. If this "recession" means lower housing prices without losing my job, then I'm all for it. I'm cautiously optimistic that the fed is actually going to hit it's "soft landing" and set us up for renewed growth in 2023-2024.

 

[swissmiss2584]

@joyjoy1001 The definition wasn't always so "arbitrary", that's the issue.

 

[mistamaniac3000]

@joyjoy1001 That other thread wasn't partisan. It was a group of people who understand economics trying tell a group who doesn't that this isn't a partisan issue. Your comments indicate, unfortunately, that you fall into the latter group.

 

[resjudicata]

@lalagata Take THAT recession!

 

[susanna12345]

@lalagata I’m sorry but your whole point about low unemployment rate may be a little irrelevant. Look at the unemployment rate and this ALMOST always spikes AFTER a recession has occurred. It’s a lagging indicator essentially.

 

[lalagata]

@susanna12345 This misconception would be forgivable, if the above linked article doesn’t specifically cite a paper discussing unemployment trends during recessions. Please go read the paragraph again, then the cited source, because you’re grossly misinterpreting a fairly straightforward data point.

Specifically page 8 here:

Panel (b) of Figure 2 shows the estimated
recession probabilities averaged across two-regime models for each of the three variables that arguably receive the most attention in both academic and popular discussions of short-run fluctuations—real GDP growth, employment growth, and the change in the unemployment rate.4 The models using either employment or the unemployment rate yield the same two key results as the model using GDP: the two regimes look like recessions and expansions, and the periods the model assigns high recession probabilities to overlap closely with NBER recessions. Indeed, the correspondence to the NBER recession dates from averaging the three sets of estimates is even closer than that using GDP alone. Of course there are differences (an issue we discuss below), but the overall fit is remarkable.

Effectively, overlaying sharp upward trends in unemployment combined with GDP shows significant overlap with actual business cycle contractions. Unemployment has done the exact opposite through the first two quarters. Claims have shifted slightly upwards, but certainly not definitively enough to ignore the larger shift downward in unemployment, a trend completely at odds with historic unemployment behavior in contractions.

 

[texaschristianhusband]

@lalagata You’re the best

 

[jbloggs]

@lalagata denial => This is not a recession

anger => Censor online "disinformation"

bargaining => "Ok but this recession is only temporary"

depression => "Biden Mumbles words end of quote leaves the room without answers"

acceptance => "Recession is only at 8% "