Current value of a hypothetical $10k invested in each company that advertised in the first quarter of the 2013 Super Bowl

[taliajo]

I went with just the first quarter because IMHO they are the best commercials. For reference the same amount of money investing in the S&P 500 would be worth $313k today

This included dividends, but assumes they are not reinvested.

Company
Value of a $10k investment

Hyundai
$15,734

Sketchers
$62,812

Toyota
$15,255

Oreo (Mondelez International)
$27,305

Coke-a-Cola
$19,190

Anheuser Busch Inbev
$9,407

Best Buy
$67,953

PepsoCo
$29,090

Audi
$13,380

Mars Corp
$6,951

McDonalds
$32,264

Century 21
$72,471

AT&T
$14,038

L'Oreal
$27,400

Yum!
$31,401
Total $444,651

 

[simon84]

@taliajo According to portfolio visualizer, the same amount ($150,000) invested in the S&P (VFINX, specifically) would be $488,068.
(Feb 2013 to Jan 2023).

$10,000 in VFINX over the same period would be $32,538.

Only beaten by Sketchers, BB, and Century 21, although they significantly outperformed.

3 other stocks came within 10% or so.

 

[marlinkingsley]

@simon84 Just shows the power of indexes and truth that even if you pickfew winners winners the average market performance is the way to go.

However, I wonder how the numbers would stack up with dividends reinvested. As some of those companies do pay them and naturally their stock grows slower.

 

[resjudicata]

@marlinkingsley Buy indexes and sprinkle in some long shots

 

[resjudicata]

and sprinkle in some long shots

How is this not straight up gambling?

 

[resjudicata]

If you retire on the wrong year you can be fucked so it’s all gambling.

 

[resjudicata]

So when you retire, you are emptying your entire portfolio and putting the cash under your mattress? What dumb ass logic.

 

[resjudicata]

No you’ll be spending and cashing out at the bottom potentially. Or we can wind up like Japan with population and economic growth issues. Life is a gamble. There are no guarantees.

 

[resjudicata]

No... It's not all gambling

 

[goldensilver]

@marlinkingsley This is what my mom taught me who is a director of trading at an institutional share holder. She’s fairly risk adverse, but obviously knows many ppl who just want to hit home runs with the stock market.

 

[julieb70]

@marlinkingsley Not 100% true.

The index is only good to keep up with inflation.

If you dollar cost average that $150,000 over that time, the ROI would be much less.

No different in 15 years. The market (S&P) will be 3x from here due to inflation. However, I bet putting money in MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, WMT, ADBE, NVDA, TSLA, etc. today will yield > 3x in 15 years.

 

[janggeungulk]

@julieb70 Basis?

 

[julieb70]

@janggeungulk Value of $1 in 2000.

Value of $1 in 2023.

Market change in the last 23 years.

About the same as inflation? Or much much more?

Now, the market may have over shot in 2022, so let's use 2025 as the date if the market stays relatively flat for the next 3 years.

Hard to use 1980-2022 as a good measure of stable and realistic returns since 401k and public stock market investing became more of a thing in those 40 years. More cash inflows during that time vs previously. In other words, what has happened in the last 40 yrs may change. The market may fail to beat other investments like real estate, etc moving forward. Nevertheless, I think it still keeps up with inflation over the long term bc it is based on earnings and earnings keep up with inflation as prices of goods goes up.

 

[janggeungulk]

@julieb70 Yes the market outgrew inflation by about 4% a year. Also are you claiming that public investors are necessary for accurate asset pricing? It seems like you’re putting forward some intuitive opinions which the general mass of economist would disagree with.

 

[julieb70]

@janggeungulk My opinions are that no one can pick an arbitrary date and make general assumptions from it like it's fact.

Commenting that "if I invested in 20xx" the returns are 4x, so it only makes sense to invest in the stock market indexes" is fallacy bc he/she picked a time when the market again was in the midst of starting a big bull run.

People buying at 5000 nasdaq in 2002 are only 150% richer today. So $10,000 in 2002 is only $25,000 today. See what I did there? Most investors dollar cost average for a reason.

 

[janggeungulk]

@julieb70 Idk if you are a troll or not but if you don’t intend to respond to questions then I think there is not much point to debate.

 

[foreverintrovert]

@julieb70 What you’re saying, makes no sense.

 

[waytodawa]

@foreverintrovert At least some part does.

 

[julieb70]

@foreverintrovert The avg market performance is not necessarily the way to go.

The comment was that investing in the avg market in 2013 led to 3x gains! "Woo hoo. Proven right"

It's bs.

Investing $10k in 2002 would have made practically a few % in 10y yrs by 2012. OP is cherry picking a date in time at the start of a bull run.

Invest the same $10k in early 2022 and in 10yr, the return in 10yr of 2032 may much different bc the investment start was at the end of a bull market.

Likewise, in response to the $150k visualizer example, most people would have dollar cost avg that amount over the last 10yr vs lumpsum, so the $450k return would not be real.

Most people don't invest at Superbowl time of 20xx and wait 10yr to see their ROI. Most people avg in investments over long periods of time.

 

[xrrbx]

@marlinkingsley It depends on how much of a winner you get, and how much you invested in it to.

My portfolio would be under performing the S&P500 if I dropped my single best performing stock from it.