CoreLogic daily home value index: Prediction status update

[ngallbass]

Prediction status check: how are we going toward a 50% drop in the
Core Logic Home Value
Index (5 capital city
aggregate) from its peak 2020 value by end of 2025?

• Peak 2020 value (Dec 31 2020): 137
• All-time high (May 07 2022): 176.66
• Current value (Jul 07 2022): 174.05

→ Change from 2020 peak to now: +27.0%

→ Change from all-time high to now: -1.5%

→ Change from now for prediction to be correct:
-60.6%

⇒ Average monthly change since 2020 peak: +1.3%

⇒ Average monthly change since all-time high:
-0.7%

⇒ Average monthly change from now until end of 2025 for prediction to be
correct: -2.2%

I am a bot made by /@jesuslover07. Beep boop. I post at most once per week.
These regular posts are made at the
request of
the user who made the above prediction.

 

[hay12345]

@ngallbass Todays Corelogic daily went up .02 points (.01%) nationally.

30 YEAR BULL RUN BEGINS!!

 

[bishopjordan1]

@hay12345 The great Australian property recovery has begun.

 

[lostchildinohio]

@bishopjordan1 Who could have seen this coming

 

[roxxie]

@bishopjordan1 Lmao the tag line is perfect

 

[hay12345]

@bishopjordan1 Hope you got in at the dip!

I snapped up 25 yesterday

 

[dennyrondonuwu]

@bishopjordan1 This actually made me lol
Formatting and all

 

[cetrex]

@hay12345 Let's make Median $100,000,000.00 dollars!

 

[janey84]

@ngallbass Everyone in here is banned now

 

[christy_aldridge]

@janey84 What if this bot were created just to see who replied, in order to add them to his ban list.

 

[wlandis10]

@janey84 Don't worry, we already were for being right.

 

[jjddww]

@ngallbass What I find most surprising are the numbers that came in this week.

Month on month building permits and home loans absolutely blew past expectations somehow. The value of home loans taken were up 2.1% on the month (vs a consensus of -2%) and building permits were up 9.9% vs a -1.8% consensus.

 

[olaitan]

@jjddww There's quite a big lag on construction loans and permits.
Someone I know bought in March and is only now getting plans finalised, and the loan is approved until the final build contract is sorted.

 

[andywilliams]

@olaitan From what I’ve seen with building timelines - March to know is a quick turn around.

 

[dmit5487ivan]

@jjddww Building approvals, outside massive spikes like the HomeBuilder, bounce around month to month because of the ex-houses category. It's really volatile. Probably because a few big projects approved in a month can overwhelm everything else. Here it is, in all its glory:

https://imgur.com/h15lu2z

ABS has now brought back the trend series, it's much more manageable:

https://imgur.com/WJnUYj0

Otherwise, you can look at quarterly totals or something like that.