CoreLogic daily home value index: Prediction status update

[desiringgodsbest]

@chaotik31 That doesn't make it right

 

[chaotik31]

@desiringgodsbest So you take just as much issue with this post then? I think the goal of this post is to prove property won't go down 50%, and an implication of "haha it's gone up 27% since you said that".

I see only the slightest insignificant issue with both, I understand why people get proud when their predictions come true, pretty natural. As long as there's not a mal intention behind it.

 

[desiringgodsbest]

@chaotik31 I think everything about this "housing dropping 50%" and the echo chamber it has created is annoying

 

[chaotik31]

@desiringgodsbest Echo chamber? Honestly from what I've seen there's one person who's pushing that really hard, a few people who agree with him or unsure, and a bunch of others who think it might drop but by how much, they don't know.

I wouldn't call that an echo chamber, particularly because it's the complete minority of people's opinion, and that's been the way it's been for years. It's becoming more of a common opinion that it might drop by 10-30%, but even that is the minority.

Also, it being annoying to you to have to read people who think it might drop is very different to it being harmful to the people who are going to be in a lot of pain if house prices drop substantially.

For the most part, people who are locked out of the housing market and have no idea whether they'll be homeless in the future, and don't feel they're able to do things like start a family are currently tangibly in a lot of pain, rather than people who are theoretically going to be in a lot of pain if the market drops. I'd argue those people have been living in that reality for years, and it doesn't get any better for them in a 50% crash due to interest rates either. There's not really much hope for them, or a plan forwards. Other than intergenerational wealth.

 

[truefaith4u2]

@desiringgodsbest Yet you don't seem to be calling out those people. Nor the types that harp on about "oh you just jealous you didn't buy ten years ago, loser"

It goes both ways if you want to pretend to be some beacon of empathy. Otherwise this faux-concern is clearly and comically self-interested, more transparent than glass.

 

[desiringgodsbest]

@truefaith4u2 What people, did i miss one person constantly bringing up price rises? Also I'm not even calling out this person?

 

[truefaith4u2]

@lindseym1013 Australians are years ahead on their mortgage. Savings rates are incredibly high.

What you are saying simply just doesn't add up with reality.

People lose their homes even when the price goes up.

Playing this emotional game is ridiculous. If you made bad life choices then I feel for you, but society shouldn't have to suffer for it.

In todays age anyone can download an app and get a job tomorrow driving uber.

 

[geoffreyatkinson]

@lindseym1013 And it didn't even drop by 50% in the US.

 

[labman57]

@ngallbass My prediction is that the RBA will put the cash rate up by around 2%, but then the economy will go into fits and they will have to cut again. I don't see the cash rate sitting at much beyond 1% in the medium term. That would probably result in house prices falling 15-20% on average over the next 3 years. But that's with everything in the global economy being equal, which is by no means certain.

There are a lot of potential black swan events on the horizon. A global food crisis seems inevitable at this point due to Russia's war in Ukraine. China is facing many significant challenges, from demographic collapse, to food insecurity, to a collapsing housing market, which could depress demand for Australian exports. Other major economies are also facing significant headwinds. Predicting what any such event would mean for the Australian property market is beyond my abilities, but it does seem like there is more downside risk than upside potential.

 

[ennisdavis]

@ngallbass It was 2018 prices the loony was predicting on. And it was even to 70% down off those prices. Desperado has a long way to go.

But anyway, this is great.

If true, that’s hilarious he’s blocked this bot and bot’s creator, after having requested it. LMAO. What a joker.

 

[resjudicata]

@ngallbass This is awesome!

 

[kvasas]

@ngallbass Bullish. Sell everything you own for another house deposit!