Core PCE comes in 0.2% MoM vs 0.2% exp 4.2% YoY vs 4.2% exp

[thisdogdonegone]

@prayerdon have to calculate it yourself. It's basically core services but remove the housing components.

During the release, bloomberg or CNBC will likely highlight that number and show a chart for it. Otherwise, you can wait for Jason Furman to release his charts on Twitter. I'm sure Nick Timiraos or economists who analyze these stuff will post their own calculations as well on Twitter

 

[creony]

@thisdogdonegone He's just looking for the data that allows him to take a hard line at this point. He wants to keep tough rhetoric to stop a resurgence of inflation.

No reason to continue hiking, but also no reason for cutting too early as well.

 

[aimeelynn17]

@jake_dufner Until it gets revised later like numerous times recently. Time will tell

 

[noothername]

@aimeelynn17 Economic releases always get revised, it’s not a “recently” thing. It’s the speed vs accuracy problem in getting economic information. If we waited for all the data to come in before calculating CPI/PCE/GDP/whatever it would be several months later and basically not helpful at that point

 

[thisdogdonegone]

@noothername the recent thing is weird seasonal behaviors from COVID recovery messing up the normal seasonal adjustments. That, along with the econ data totally contradicting what most economists (including the Fed) think should've happened (which is the economy cooling), means big risk the data getting revised drastically later on. The job report revising down is a prime candidate for that.

Edit : yup saw huge downward revision in June 2023. 210k job gains initial release down to 105k. July and Aug possibly the same thing since the response rate for the initial release isn't high, and response rate increases as months pass.

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm#2023

 

[jprice63]

@aimeelynn17 Revise up as usual

 

[gregeze]

@jprice63 Absolute nonsense. They revise both up and down. Like most reditors you only care when they revise up because it confirms your stupid priors.

 

[adacres]

@jake_dufner I believe there will be 1 more hike.

 

[rozmac]

@jake_dufner Soft landing incoming

 

[amm]

@jake_dufner Meh. As long as it’s not 5% or over, it’s not something to worry about.

I think the Fed is really looking at employment and wage numbers at this point.

 

[sparker]

@amm Which are also ripping

 

[conzie]

@sparker Ripping up? Or RIP ing?

Because job market is great rn.

 

[sparker]

@conzie You answered your own question. The labor market is hot.

 

[colton18]

@jake_dufner Where's the 0.1% monthly print? I see no such thing