@leo_meshay
This isn't a useful response. Did you wake up on the wrong side of the bed or something?
My sleeping situation is irrelevant. Whether you deem my comment useful or not is gauged by your response to the information provided - you decided it's worth thinking over and responded.
Your comment seems more like a rant against the unpredictability of the car market rather than helpful advice.
the only advice I was framing my response around is to not solely using financial calculations for emotional decisions. If I expand on this some more, let's say you buy a haval for R200k less than the t-cross and at the end of the day it drove the same kilometers safely, but you sold it for R200k less also - which was the "logical" correct decision? obviously it depends on your emotional weighing, since both brands conform to the same reliability and safety norms. I chose my VW because the seat is more comfortable.
First off, your argument is riddled with logical fallacies.
Appeal to Ignorance: You say, 'Looking at past trends to predict future value is insanity.' But that's not how it works. Historical data is essential for making educated guesses. No one can predict the future with 100% accuracy, but that doesn't mean we should ignore valuable trends and insights from the past.
ignoring valuable trends and insights? Which pre-covid trends are still really useful today? What are the pending influences of the move to EVs that the rest of the world is seeing? We don't import second-hand cars en-masse yet, but if ICE is banned in Europe and fuel subsidies end there, why wouldn't all their 2023+ compact SUVs flood our small market?
Slippery Slope: You're implying that a scandal could completely devalue the car. That's an extreme assumption and not a very likely scenario. Yes, unforeseen events happen, but they're the exception, not the rule.
Every year there's a new scandal. blindly hoping it doesn't affect you is akin to just not using the dataset either way. Completely devalue is also an extreme, but if your car sold for 75% of todays value in 2 years from now, it still counts as a failure to your initial position, doesn't it?
False Dilemma: You make it sound like the only two options are a car being worth zero after ten years or buying something cheaper. There's a whole spectrum of possibilities in between.
Analysing two extremes to find a compromise YOU'RE willing to settle on is literally the art of making a decision... You get to choose which way you want it.
Hasty Generalisation: Saying no brand, not even Toyota, is immune to devaluation is an over-simplification. While it's true that no brand is bulletproof, some have a much better track record than others.
I was not referring to general devaluation, but to the loss that second-hand car buyers experience when something major does change. Toyota has recently been caught cheating in crash safety tests - we don't yet know the future impact of this...
Straw Man: I wasn't asking for a crystal ball prediction. I was asking for advice based on current trends and the experience of others.
Cool, that's not how I interpreted "legitimate chance of getting 80-90% back"
Ad Hominem: Undermining the credibility of Reddit experts just because they're on this platform isn't a valid argument. It's not where the advice comes from, but the quality of it that matters.
Sure, this goes hand-in-hand with the crystal ball.
Finally, I'm not some young kid looking to waste my money and justify an "emotional purchase", so you can take your virtue signalling somewhere else.
Knowing when something is an emotional purchase or a financial purchase is extremely important, regardless of your feelings about my approach. Words like "looking to waste my money" gives me the sense that you're being too clinical about this, but that's just my own personal experience talking. Decide if you're buying a tool and then treat it like a tool, or buying a companion who will be with you for the next 2-3 years (possibly much longer if your situation changes)
