Bridge investment until CHF gets stronger

[mog411]

Hi all,

following this sub for a while, first post for me. I wanted to invest ca. 60k CHF now but im kinda unsure about the market situation of Swiss Frank weakness and interruption of the bull market. CHF lost already roughly 8% this year to USD, but I believe it will rebound later this year.

Now with FED and EZB not moving, i suspect this rebound to be less strong / delayed. What would you do?

- A: Just go for VT now. ("Its about time in the market, not time the market..")

- B: Buy CHF based ETF meanwhile. If yes, which??

- C: Convert to USD, keep at 4.75% at WillBe until later this year.

- D: CHF at BankWIR Sparkonto at 1.8% until later this year.

 

[paul234]

@mog411 Stop trying to time the market. Whatever reasonable assumption for the future you as an amateur (don't take it as an offense) can make is already baked into the prices.

VT and forget.

 

[bigmike424]

@paul234 This. I also tell everyone. I do it. Except last month I thought to be smart and lost 6 months of gains trying to time the market lol. So yeah, just VT and chill

 

[mog411]

@paul234 Thanks for the comment!

 

[ruzou]

@paul234 I don't get VT and buying the cheap crappy end of the market. IWQU and forget.

 

[paul234]

@ruzou 0.3% TER, lol, you must like wasting money.

 

[ruzou]

@paul234 Absolutely destroyed VT over just about any time period.

Quality factor not only has better performance historically but also in most periods simultaneously lower voltality. Is that kind of sortino ratio difference worth paying 0.2% for?

See https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S105833001300044X for instance

Imo yes.

Another question. Do you think you will perform better over the long term because you own worse quality companies?

 

[paul234]

@ruzou 5Y VTI "destroyed" (are you 13?) IWQU. 10Y even more. Grow up.

If that was your sole comparison, you clearly have no idea what you're talking about.

 

[ruzou]

@paul234 Sadly I'm 35.

VT 5 year performance is 45%. IWQU is 73%.

 

[paul234]

@ruzou

35

Maybe time to learn a few things then.

 

[ruzou]

@paul234 Im not the one equating VTI and VT

 

[paul234]

@ruzou You didn't get why I said that, did you? Should I draw it for you?

I won't, no point explaining any further, have a good day!

 

[ruzou]

@paul234 That VTI is both lower TER and similar historical performance (the 5 year is almost identical). Sure but one country bets are inherently more risky.

I do accept however that VTI and forget is absolutely a good and possibly even better alternative to IWQU. Perhaps that can be my conciliatory note.

I actually really enjoy most of your posts so won't wind you up any more. I'm not just a fan of VT specifically. We can agree to disagree on that

 

[slamdunker]

@paul234 Why so salty?

 

[resjudicata]

@ruzou Looks interesting

 

[tobiahjude99]

@mog411 You have to forget about timing that, as hard as that is.

You may time the CHF, but in the meantime ghe stockmarket may rally 10%, then you lost out.

It‘s a battle you can‘t win. Hedgefund with billions in assets and thousands of employees with phds have a hard time to do it. You have no hope to compete here.

I get where you are coming from and the CHF weakness sucks a lot currently, but just stay the course. Follow your investment plan, invest every paycheck regardless of what the market does. Sometimes you do bad and feel bad, other times you are doing really good. It averages out.

 

[mog411]

@tobiahjude99 Thanks a lot for the sincere comment! Deep inside this is exactly what i am thinking, but then theres this other side trying to optimize

 

[johng3624]

@mog411 I only managed to get stay away from market timing after losing enough money that it really hurt

 

[ariel04]

@mog411 Always A. VT and chill.

 

[letthrmusixsaveyourlife]

@mog411 What?

You read the statistiques wrong, the CHF lost in some months 4.5% during the last year and is even green now in a one year timeline.

The CHF has never been stronger, without any SNB intervention.