Anyone care to speculate on the mortgage situation next summer? I'm losing my mind with worry

[blhchristina]

@anotherklutz I'm in similar position to you.

Mortgage due for renewal in November next year.

Started on a 95% mortgage, due to house price rises round my way I'm down to 73% LTV though, I have a 2% exit fee.

I've decided I'm going to just hang it out till then. Maybe lock something in mid year if rates are still looking to rise, otherwise maybe sit tight, and even think about a tracker if it's going to have a potential of coming down shortly after rather than fix at a higher rate.

 

[deedee79]

@anotherklutz Looking at your numbers you had at £142,500 mortgage over 40 years?

And your maximum budget is £1,500/m

To reach £1,500/m on £132k over 35 years (bank) interest rates would need to be 13.5%

This is way higher than anyone is seriously predicting.

 

[anotherklutz]

@deedee79 Yeah that's correct. Thanks - it's just the 16% that horrified me when I saw it

 

[wabj68]

@anotherklutz Its a hard position. We've around 50k left end of our deal and LTV is around 20% I fixed it for 10 years back in 2016, I saw something coming but I was happy to pay a touch more. Our deal is up 2027 I am just hoping things level out.

Personally, I can't see change anywhere UNTIL the war in Ukraine has some sort of conclusion. There is market uncertainty until that point, if anything the position can currently only get worse. I.e military escalation, full switch off of gas, natural weather events causing further disruption to food supply all resulting in continued inflation.

The UK government sped things up, rate rises were inevitable, but Kwateng and Truss lunacy made it happen sooner, it now down to alot of decisions they take as to the trajectory of that interest rate.

Try and keep talking, it the best place for your brain to keep letting this out somewhere. Happy to talk if you need an ear.

 

[anotherklutz]

@wabj68 !thanks. I wanted to post here to get a bit more knowledge on all of this since nobody is particularly savvy local to me and advisors cost a lot of money that I only really want to spend once if I have to (e.g at the point I'm actually remortgaging, not while I'm looking for info). Unfortunately though, this thread often produces downvotes and arsey comments for me but thanks for seeing it differently - people just need to talk and get more perspective sometimes.

 

[wabj68]

@anotherklutz Here here.

I've never had a mortgage broker, ultimately it's what you can afford and your desired level of risk.

 

[vusi]

@anotherklutz ‘Control the controllables’
Earn more, spend less, get the best rate you can at the time.
And most importantly, keep smiling.

 

[anotherklutz]

@vusi !thanks - already cut spending, unfortunately can't earn much more but doing whatever I can

 

[pm1909]

@anotherklutz I wouldn't panic. You have no idea what will happen over the next few months, but there is plenty of hysteria going on right now which lenders are baking into their new deals. If I were you I'd just stay the course and see the lay of the land. You could get a decision in principle now which would lock in a deal for up to six months that you wouldn't be committed to, but I'd probably time this for six months before your fixed term ends so you wouldn't need to pay ERC.

 

[grahamsnumber]

@anotherklutz Remember LTV is based on the value of the house not when you purchased but when you remortgage. I think house prices will still be net up since 2018 (even if they fall back slightly next year) so you may already be at about 75% LTV when your fix is up - take a look at what similar houses in your area have sold for over the past six months to a year.

People have been panicking a lot about a potential for a 10% fall in house prices in 2023, but they have failed to point out that will take house prices all the way back to.... Where they were in 2021, so it's not as apocalyptic as some of the clickbait media are trying to point too.

 

[belovedd]

@anotherklutz Liam Halligen has been doing some great analysis over on GBnews.

 

[commie4christ]

@anotherklutz I have no crystal ball like others, and I am in a similar situation, but have talked myself down from the ledge of paying an ERC which would have been a huge chunk of my savings. I stressed a lot in the last couple of weeks like you, but have settled and feeling more at ease about it now. "Que Sera, Sera."

The time to do it would have been before the mini-budget panic, but most of us will have missed that timing. I'm putting surplus into extra savings for now and going to rethink when I can remortgage closer to the time without ERCs. The banks will already be pricing it in to any new deals so they can't lose (as is usual for fixes). I'm not betting a £2k ERC against a bank.