@jen907907 alright dude, let's wrap this up. You got plenty of upvotes from the bears so you should feel happy and vindicated. We're obviously not changing each other's minds, and therefore this DD wan't really aimed at you. You can stay bearish if you want. I don't care. I aimed this DD at the curious ones who don't speak up because they don't know much about Tesla (or at least, realize they don't know much lol) and who deserve a fair, quantitative DD with numbers. I've given that to them. Now we'll sum up our tedious and near pointless back and forth with our points of disagreement (for the quiet ones reading):
I believe that ASP and costs of manufacturing will both fall. I believe that costs will fall faster than ASP, resulting in increased margin. In fact, this is what we observe in the past decade. The trend has agreed with my prediction up to this point. You believe that this trend will reverse, and that margins will go down. You believe this because Tesla will have to start "selling to the downmarket" or whatever, which is also.. exactly what Tesla has been doing for the past decade.. making lower priced EVs.
I claim that people buy Teslas because they enjoy the car, somewhat like a hobby, and that people are willing to buy Teslas at slightly higher prices than their former gas cars. And despite the past agreeing with my prediction, you once again disagree. Insisting that I'm wrong.
You believe margins will go down, and you don't agree with any of my numbers. You don't think Tesla can make $12k gaap earnings per EV, despite the trend suggesting they will soon:
You don't agree that Tesla will sell 12M EVs annually, despite the trend suggesting they will around 2027: 934,000 * 1.50^8 = 11.4M
I don't think you mentioned P/E, but I'm going to o on a limb and guess that you don't believe Tesla will be trading at a 50 P/E by 2027. Ok.
Alright, I consider this discussion wrapped up. I won't be replying anymore, as it's really exhausting and time consuming, especially the way the back and forth goes down a bunch of rabbit holes. We'll leave it up to the viewer to make their own decisions.