@theologyandfishing Tesla was the first EV manufacturer investing big in the technology and producing cars in high numbers. They managed to sell increasing numbers of cars to New tech and
environmental affine high income buyers that wanted to be amount the first to own an EV rather than buying a reasonable priced car. Being in that situation provided them to sell cars in a lower luxury segment with large profits, because demand was higher than supply. I don’t see these growth rates sustainable once other car manufacturers offer cars in the segment, nor do I see the profits for Tesla cars per unit possible in lower priced segment. Teslas advantage was being the first and scaling production faster than others.
No car manufacturers ever was market leader in Economy,
Compact,
Mid-size, standard,
Premium,
Luxury,
SUV and sports car segments. Some managed market shares of 7-9% for the whole market, others 15-16% in one segment.
Any estimates for Tesla with higher market shares are just projections of past growth rates to a highly competitive car industry that do not take into account that Tesla will not be as favorable in the customer and investor rankings as it is right now.
With other manufacturers producing EV‘s on larger scales, they will loose their spotlight space in the market and without the stock performance of the past in the future, the same will happen to the stock.
Ask yourself How many Tesla shares you are planning to buy at $1000 this year?