Ahead of US CPI today, these are some of the official predictions from the big banks:

@praisethelordjesuschrist I think you're misunderstanding OP. Of course Trump is to blame for tying the Fed and not allowing them to raise rates.

But there is an important point to be made that it took literally two years for the Fed to consider raising rates (March 2020-March 2022), even when all data showed the economy was way too hot.

That is on Powell, not Trump. We wouldn't be here if he raised rates in 2021.
 
@karkajou You think all those disenfranchised voter who think the elections are rigged and was stolen will go out again in hordes to vote for Trump?

It's kind of funny seeing his whole tactic of election fraud blowing up in his own face. Convince enough people that elections are a sham, then they're likely not going to go out and vote the next time around because they assume elections won't go in their favor. It's a self fulfilling prophecy.
 
@chapnelson I think the average joe cares if they are economically better off than when a president's term began. Joe Biden may have the markets humming but most people are feeling the pain of inflation. Trump's main advantage is that people think he did a good job with the economy during his previous term.
 
@allmost The Fed has dual mandate. If they get inflation to 2% while spiking unemployment and potentially starting a recession, they likely lose a lot more credibility.
 
@connection Since 2021 we've seen YoY inflation decrease at a rate of ~1.3 percentage points annually without causing a recession.

Or if you prefer, since 2021 we've seen YoY inflation decrease at a rate of ~24% annually without causing a recession.

Either one of those interpretations seems plenty aggressive. I don't wok for the Fed, but I'd be surprised to see any further rate increases unless inflation starts going back up.
 
@kenorb Every single one underestimated. It would seem the banks are working for the government or at least pressured by the government.
 
@kenorb Banks are incentivized to estimate low

They own tons of bad bonds

Also, isn’t Goldman the same group with Jan Hatzius who projected a March rate cut? Dude must be balls deep in shitty CRE
 
@kenorb Well, of course, Wells Fargo want the high number. Wells Fargo is in San Francisco and the city has the highest exposure of commercial real estate.

JP wants lower because they’re advocating for lower interest rates. JP is also eyeing how to fix the regional bank problem. UBS has their own issues.

And naturally two of the culprits of the 2008 recession. Goldman goes high and Citi goes low.
 
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