A sea of red for the housing market. Bigger and faster falls than GFC. Wellington down 20%, Auckland down 15%.

[resjudicata]

@moonlightlaura People have great overconfidence in this because the last fifty years have seen unusually consistent growth in many countries. If you look back further house prices relative to income have gone through long periods of flat or falling trends. Between 1870 and 1970 they were more or less flat in NZ.

One driver of the sustained rises since 1970 has been downwards trends in interest rates - that will at best stop and at worst reverse.

 

[globalharvest]

@moonlightlaura Could be, but in 20 years 1.5 mil wont be more than 10x media income.... Context is important

 

[moonlightlaura]

@globalharvest Of course context is important, that was the purpose of original reply, you can't go about saying a specific set price is expensive or cheap because there isn't any other context and in 20 yrs time 1.5M might only buy you a Lego house but the average salary might be 100M (don't take the example literally, I can't be bothered working out a lego/real house price comparison)

 

[resjudicata]

@moonlightlaura No I won’t, I’ll buy one in aussie for a 3rd of the price now.

 

[moonlightlaura]

@resjudicata That doesn't change anything, prices will go up there also. "imagine paying x for a house" in 20 odd years time will have the opposite meaning regardless of where you live (bar places that have a natural disaster)

 

[resjudicata]

@moonlightlaura Okay I guess it’s just personal preference to indebt yourself in a million dollar home that isn’t worth it. A house over there is bigger, better constructed and a third the price NOW. I mean, the difference is 750 thousand dollars mate.

 

[moonlightlaura]

@resjudicata You've completely missed the point. If you were in Aus now and said "imagine paying $750k for a house" in 20 odd years saying the same thing would mean the opposite as well.

My point was that house prices in the long term (since modern history) have always gone up so even if you did pay that much, in a couple of decades it won't matter and the new house buyers then will be using the phrase in the opposite way and wondering how $1.5M used to get you a decent house and gets piss all for them.

 

[resjudicata]

@moonlightlaura How old are you and how much money do you have?

 

[moonlightlaura]

@resjudicata Why does it matter? Prices go up regardless if I own/will be looking to own/will never have enough to own. It's got nothing to do with my money or age.

 

[resjudicata]

You’ll be a boomer then.

 

[moonlightlaura]

@resjudicata "Anyone who doesn't agree with me = boomer" with this logic no wonder you don't understand the argument.

 

[fola]

@resjudicata The median house price for a property in an Australian capital city climbed above $1 million AUD earlier this year.

 

[anon95]

@andro Are rents dropping at the same rate?

 

[andro]

@anon95 Depends where you live but in Wellington yes, 3x as many rentals available in Wellington now, rents dropping across the board, a friend looked on trademe and a year ago there was 5 rentals allowing pets now theres 170, many giving away free two weeks rent to get a tenant.

 

[damian333]

@andro Finally a drop.in chch. it's tiny compared to elsewhere but a start.

 

[hangguk]

@andro Fucking finally. Hope it recovers at 50%

 

[derhodes5]

@andro Seems like the times of making 3/5 day finance (no builders/other DD) offers are long past...

 

[vincent101]

@andro Good riddance.

 

[joelbraz777]

@andro Good. Well needed.

 

[elisaaa]

@andro THANK

FUCK