A sea of red for the housing market. Bigger and faster falls than GFC. Wellington down 20%, Auckland down 15%.

[123anna]

@heatherb1993 That's actually super unlucky. Sorry to hear. There's always winner and loser.

 

[jag157]

@heatherb1993 Why does that matter? You can afford a new house to live in. It's not
"fuck my life" you should be thankful.

 

[treefencecar]

@heatherb1993 That's concerning, given you could be required to top up higher deposit at settlement if bank think you've overpaid

 

[resjudicata]

@andro What are the stats for houses between $500k and $2m ? is there anyway to find this?

 

[vartikasinha]

@andro Yeah - I have our property (Welly) down 20% from
peak and this month is the first annual fall that I can remember since we bought the property in 2011 (although it did flatline until 2015).

I reckon a 30% fall from peak from heights by October and an annually fall of 20% by the end of the year.

Anyhow - it’s a relative market so not so worried.

 

[hanna123]

@vartikasinha Pain in the arse if you’re house hunting though I’d be happiest with a decline then a long period of stability with neither dramatic rises nor falls…housing should be boring!

 

[vartikasinha]

@hanna123 Yeah - I think we are looking at falls for at least the next year. Things may stabilise after the RB stops increasing but buyers will continue being nervous.

I agree - no boom and bust would be best but that doesn’t seem to be possible.

 

[andro]

@vartikasinha Yeah I agree with that, I also think 30% by October and you're right its all relative as all the other houses will be priced similar.

 

[jessicacat580]

@andro It’s sort of like that in realistic and crazy rise of last year are being undone. It’s sort of good. Speaking as someone that’s almost finished a new build and is currently hoping the bank will lend us more..

 

[katstamper]

@andro My lending approval hasn't changed I just don't want to borrow that much.

 

[lovemarie]

@andro Comparative to our gains over the last 2 years. We have seen gains like no other country, we’ll see an adjustment to line us back up.

Only supplying a 3 month roller doesn’t capture the full picture and puts our market in a bad light. It’s also fuels fear Mongering and instigates a heard mentality or belief towards a declining market, which creates a faster declining market.

 

[wezo777]

@lovemarie The same mentality mechanisms that create falls are the same ones that create rises soooooooooooo…..

 

[lovemarie]

@wezo777 Soooooo how about offering better statistics (on either side), to best assist those with property, instead of titleing and writing with the primary goal of “outrageous titles and fear mongering gets the readers”.

The way this post is structured- it’s practically an opinion piece.

 

[harrison19]

@lovemarie Like you can fucking talk, yesterday you were posting bullshit numbers about poverty in this country to /nz and then linking to Stats NZ saying the study supported your claims, even though it didn't mention anything you were claiming. When challenged on this abused people then deleted you post and ran

 

[bones49]

@lovemarie Increasing interest rates and supply of credit drying up arent bad things?

You sir are a different kind of economist.

 

[bones49]

@lovemarie And how do you fathom an adjustment to "line us back up"?

Sub 2%interest rates? Nah that aint coming back anytime soon

Are you a investor?

 

[lovemarie]

@bones49 Mate I’m not on one side or the other, There isn’t a vested interest here.

The strategy for “adjustment to line us back” up with international housing/market gains has already been implemented. Rising interest rates are not a bad thing. In a perfect world rates would drop once’s the housing market is correlated however other factors such as inflation etc are/will also benefit from current upwards adjustments restricting an immediate adjustment back down.

Our market is not crashing, it’s adjusting. Blowing out that a 3 month roller determines the end of time is short sighted and incorrect.
Take a look at a 5 year roller with the same controls as above and just like that there isn’t a problem.

 

[joshsburroughs]

@andro And it will only accelerate from here, especially if more are in a hurry to sell to get out while they can

 

[reathua9]

@joshsburroughs Hate those investors to the root - we bought during the peak time but this’s our first home to live in with our kids. (I think I have to say this) It was disgusting to see those who weren’t fit for the house looking around in a rush, picking one of the building reports and SPA forms… now most of them are like the rats rushing to leave the ship first. I have no sympathy for them at all.

At that time more than 25-30% of the houses were bought by the investors.

 

[cindy8375]

@reathua9 For what it's worth I think investors who weren't specifically buying for up to code rentals are the ones most likely to be burned by the current downturn since turning round and renting out the property is unlikely to cover costs and the resulting rental glut might also see more rentals dinged for lack of insulation etc.