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@amenradio Always... leave yourself a margin of error. Especially when it comes to returns in asset classes that have been greater than expected.

@lexismom Supply/demand. I think it will depend a lot on the demand for money. I don't think there's any great metric for this, but M2/GDP tends to give one an idea. It's also declining rapidly, as one might think with rates this high, (borrowing slowing), but not as fast as M2 itself. I...

@showmehow M2 is crashing hard. This chart shows the YOY % change, down 2%, which seems small until you view it in perspective over 40 years. The increase during 2020 is unprecedented, the recent decline is unprecedented (but predictable), but now it's showing a sustained negative value for...