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@resjudicata Nope! Not a chance. My main point is that if you expect to achieve historical average capital gains over a period of 10 years, you'd better have good luck or above average ability to time the market.

@octsris Yes, good points. If I have time I will redo the charts over 15-20 years and see how big a difference it makes.

@resjudicata I disagree. Removing inflation just makes comparing changes in actual prices over time easier, given how much inflation has varied over time. Return on cash and wage growth are low now, but were on average higher than inflation over the time series. I picked 10 years because it is...

@divinejourney I've thought about this some more and concluded that you're correct. Certainly counter intuitive. I will update the charts so they're in nominal terms

@divinejourney Fair point, although this has less to do with inflation, and more to do with the fact that the total return from property isn't just the capital gain, which is all my charts show (there is of course the additional income from rent, holding costs, transaction costs, and the cost of...

@civil82 A thoughtful response and some good points - I agree.

Contrary to the saying "time in the market beats timing the market", capital gains for property vary massively depending on when you buy and sell, even if you hold for a long time (e.g. 10 years, which is a commonly suggested timeframe for property). The linked charts show the inflation...