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@jansina So, I think the returns on the investment need to be lower than the interest rate to "break even", assuming you debt recycle. That's because a chunk of your interest becomes tax deductible. If you can get the same 6% return, then that probably includes your required risk premium. If...

@johny111 Wage growth is in the low 3s, and RBA doesn't target house prices. They matter as far as financial stability, effect on construction, spending and a whole bunch of other reasons, but a gradual recovery from the large recent falls isn't going to be a concern. If the economy at large...

@johny111 If you want to get sensible answers from it, you can use inflation expectations instead of actual inflation. To do a little sanity check, have a look at credit growth. This look like an economy where interest rates are 7% below what they should be? Are businesses borrowing like crazy...

@johny111 Lolz, no. Come off it.

@agnosticusmexicanus Note that CPI Shelter chart that's a third of the CPI. Rent growth in advertised rents has already slowed dramatically in US. It just takes months for CPI rents (which measure actual rents paid) to reflect advertised rents, because it takes months for leases to be...

@supercow You're looking at the wrong bit of the RBA website for the research. https://www.rba.gov.au/research/ Minutes are a comms strategy. Can't resist. Abstract from the first link on the research page:

@jb77 Ah, cool. We get more detail for some categories, which is nice.

@johny111 CBA economics team commentary:

@jb77 Don't think we have monthlies for subgroups a year back, it's a new thing. And I don't have the fuel numbers to work it out. But fuel will contribute about 0.32 to the CPI reading in August. If nothing counterbalances that and everything else stays about the same as this month (as in...

@mikeah777 As the previous months, this is dollar amount, not actual volume. Comment from last month: Last month was 0 growth, and 0.7% is obviously higher than that, but let's see what volumes are like next week.

@kara1991 "Base effects" are a thing, but it depends on how long the inflation episode lasts. Prices can just continue increasing. I mean, our reference episodes, like the '70s that people talk about, predate the current inflation targeting regimes. If this keeps up though, then, yeah, it'll...

@jb77 Right, so it wasn't fuel prices dropping in July that was a significant drop, right? Sure, fuel prices going up will affect the CPI, but they didn't contribute to the drop this month - in terms of fuel, it's stuff that was already baked in form prior months. Edit: for what it's worth...

@agnosticusmexicanus There's a bit of an ongoing thing between inflationistas and disinflationistas, figured I'd summarise a bit, just one aspect of it. Chart 1 - annual inflation history That chart has a bad Y axis for my purposes - it would be better if it started a zero, but just imagine...

@dhr Yeah, I've been whining about beef for months now. Someone's making a profit. Doesn't matter, it'll come out in the wash. Unless there are huge monopolies somewhere?

@jb77 Fuel was -0.2% for the month. As in, its price fell by 0.2%. That's not a significant source. More of a rounding error.

@jaceew79 Why even post this? This is the very definition of rumours. Eh, no, that's based on a rate of 3.75% - a mix of market implied and economist forecasts. RBA's communications don't come into it - they base forecasts on that mix so as not to be seen as "promising" a certain path...