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@daniellea Long duration bonds are likely undervalued if you are willing to hold for at least a year. Fed SEP shows long term real GDP of 1.6-2.5% and inflation at 2%. According to Taylor Rule, long yields are at the upper end of the range (4.4%) and aren't priced for any sort of economic...

@resjudicata 1) Fed funds at 0 was a recent development sure, but FFR was lowered to 3% in 1992-1993, and 1-2% between 2001 and 2004, much lower than they are now. Cutting rates without a major 2008-like event is not unprecedented. 2) OP is talking about long duration yields anyway, not...

@jmz Ironic considering the crash in natural gas futures. Utility and power demand is priced using contracts done months in advance. Inflation readings are inherently backward looking and neither CPI or PPI have reflected the recent drop in cost of power.