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@samdasari Yea, so.. I don't disagree with your numbers. I was just throwing out a very rough estimate. And if the competing car is a $25k Corolla, then it's a fair point. I do think there is value though, in that comparably priced EVs to ICE cars will see a difference in cost over lifetime...

@samdasari It might be best to think about it terms of miles. Assuming $30 an oil change every 2000 miles, a $10 brake check every 5000 miles and 25mpg and $3/gal for gas 100000/2000 * 30 + 1000000/5000 * 10 + 100000/25 * 3 = $15500 over 100k miles it saves about $15k, very roughly

@jen907907 Tbf, many are switching from Honda Civics to Teslas. Myself included (bye bye 2014 Honda Civic, Hello Model Y) Now, as to what extent people are trading in $25kish cars for Teslas is.. hard to determine. Basically I'm suggesting that Teslas are so nice, the average price paid for...

@jen907907 alright dude, let's wrap this up. You got plenty of upvotes from the bears so you should feel happy and vindicated. We're obviously not changing each other's minds, and therefore this DD wan't really aimed at you. You can stay bearish if you want. I don't care. I aimed this DD at the...

@jen907907 average car in the US sells for $46k: https://www.kbb.com/car-news/average-new-car-sales-price-now-over-46000/#:~:text=Average%20New%20Car%20Sales%20Price%20Now%20Over%20%2446%2C000,-BySean%20Tucker&text=Americans%20paid%20an%20average%20of,higher%20sales%20of%20luxury%20cars...

@jen907907 noooo, I take it you didn't read my post. Battery costs have dropped to 1/10th what they were back in 2010. But! there is more economies of scale to come with the new factories I'm not suggesting they will. I have the ASP dropping to $37k and the gross margin to be 43% around 2027...

@dave1863 This is where we disagree. Everyone seems to think margins are going to go down, yet.. they've only gone up since the first 2013 Model S. Doesn't anyone find this interesting? The mechanism behind it is what I discussed in my post, basically Wright's Law and other efficiencies, such...

@marvin54 which number do you disagree with? Just curious It seems like most people don't like the 10M EVs and the 50 P/E. Not many people have challenged the idea of $12k gaap earnings per EV, at least.. not directly

@cjoye07 I disagree with the idea that Tesla will struggle to grow 50% YoY to the point of 12M annual sales. I also disagree with the sentiment of Toyota's sales somehow being a barrier for Tesla.

@mark6126 Well, I disagree

@matt1111 True, to elaborate I think it comes down to the dropping costs to build EVs. I personally believe that EV technology, even at Tesla, is still in its infancy and has quite a ways to drop in cost. I've never heard someone tell me that, even under strict conditions that others don't...

@dojoloach I've considered high fixed costs. Tesla has maintained, and grown, it's positive free cash flow since 2018. They already have 4 factories built with a capacity well in excess of 4M EVs. as for high-upfront investment.. this is why they had negative free cash flow for the first 10...

@thuva What am I missing about the automotive sector in general?

@sheila51 you think the S&P will only be $47T by 2027? I'd give it higher than that, but nonetheless, my claim is that Tesla could be the largely constituent of the S&P, yes

@dashestoashes not in 2027 it won't be

@jen907907 They've refreshed and brought down the cost to make the S and X. It's more of their "luxury" offering at this point. and I didn't say that lowering prices has the same margin. I said that costs to manufacture (and also battery costs) are coming down faster than the prices are coming...

@cymomof3 um... Tesla from 2013 - 2022? Prices have come down and margins have gone up. Unfortunately, Tesla is the only example we have of an EV business that's even remotely at production scale Also they have some economies of scale working for them, but they're about to open 2 new...

@cymomof3 that's not always true. rapidly decreasing costs of innovative technologies and manufacturing isn't intuitive for everyone.

@cymomof3 Guess we'll see. I do think Tesla prices will come down to meet demand. Also, it's debatable if it's already cheaper to own a Tesla over the lifespan of a car.

@floan I didn't say Tesla doesn't have competition. In fact I said this: Tesla has always had competition, and they sill every car they make. Just like everyone was going to copy the iPhone, and Apple continued to sell every iPhone they made for a decade+ I agree that prices will come down on...