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When to Take Profit in O&G Producers, Again?
@a_aron1011 OXY is doing all of this: lol, I was in this when it was Encana back in the day. The inflation thesis we see coming to fruition now was also floated shortly after 2008, and that one burned a lot of people including myself. It convinced me that there's too much natural gas to... -
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When to Take Profit in O&G Producers, Again?
@a_aron1011 IMHO OXY was undervalued. It fell by far the most in 2020 when covid hit and it had yet to rise nearly as much as steady plays like MRO. The recent upside is catchup. When you talk about debt and preferred, all I see is enterprise value and a lot of leverage it can use to... -
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When to Take Profit in O&G Producers, Again?
@a_aron1011 lol, hello again. =) No, not yet. I will use IEO for my argument as I mainly see oil via a macro lens. For company-specific analysis IMHO the main factor is leverage, which OXY has tons and thus it's being reflected only now via massive rises because the debate around its... -
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When to Take Profit in O&G Producers, Again?
@a_aron1011 IMHO oil has a long way to go before valuations become unattractive. OXY after its 400% run is still well below where it was in 2018, and that wasn't even a time of high oil prices. Oil companies will continue to trade at low multiples but the earnings rise will make it worth it... -
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When to Take Profit in O&G Producers, Again?
@a_aron1011 I have no illusions when it comes to the perception of O&G - it is negative. It will continue to be negative going forward, even as oil rises. The rise will cause renewables to become more and more competitive vis a vis O&G, and this is where all the positive energy will flow... -
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When to Take Profit in O&G Producers, Again?
@rnstaplesattnet Nature of oil too. Old, crotchety businesses people don't get excited over. =) -
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When to Take Profit in O&G Producers, Again?
@a_aron1011 I think the recent weeks have demonstrated that oil is primarily political in nature. Before, the thesis was primarily that of inflation. Now, you have a geopolitical nightmare in Europe with the US reaping the rewards of its ungodly pursuit of a Russian proxy war. -
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When to Take Profit in O&G Producers, Again?
@a_aron1011 You know, I still remember looking at valuations of homebuilders like DR Horton around 2005. Their multiples were very low then, around 6. Profits were, of course, absolutely amazing, but investors did not push multiples any higher. Then, the collapse occurred. I see this... -
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When to Take Profit in O&G Producers, Again?
@martaaa I disagree. You will reach peak O&G when the US somehow is able to co-opt Russia and complete an encirclement of China. Then, the US, with Russia's giddy support, will be able to weaponize oil prices and really punish China and get its hydrocarbon-starved economy to kow tow to the...