Search results

@elle22 I understand data, not emojis. I've already pointed out where federal taxes come from. Looking at the data, I believe that the lower and middle working class don't pay much tax ... because they have very little money.

@elle22 Still not getting it. You'll have to use paragraphs instead of emojis.

@elle22 What do you mean?

@elle22 I'll kind of disagree. I'm pretty sure upper middle class income earners pay the bulk of federal taxes. The top 50% of incomes pays 97% of Federal income tax, and the top 10% pays 73%, and the top 1% pays 42%. Then you get into the upper class that lives off dividends and cap...

@beysburson His analysis stops at 2019. His point is that we can't cut below 2019 levels. The pandemic market was just the icing. There's not much more to go, and, just like the last tax cuts, it's a windfall, not a source of growth. Growth would be cutting corporate tax by 1% a year...

@tramvn No, what he says is that the last 35 years of the stock market was pumped up by effects (tax and rate cuts, not just low taxes and rates) that can't be pushed any further. The dial is set to 11. The accelerator is floored. No more big growth even if we don't take the foot off the...

@nattyz Smolyansky doesn't assume this, as far as I can tell. He's saying that we started with high rates, high taxes around 1989. Then rates and taxes were cut, boosting profits. Investors said "Hey, companies are doing great - look at that profit growth!" and drove stock prices up, even...

@jsmith116 Of course. SPY pays a dividend. It's a matter of emphasis. More stress to whom? Look, the more people like me buy dividend stocks, the more TSLA and AMZN there is for you.

@jsmith116 A simple rejoinder is "Look, the div fund might be a bargain now, but SPY is in a bubble." You're contrasting a dividend fund over a 1 year period to the US SPY. This is also a 7.7% extreme fund, not a conservative 4% big-cap fund. Comparing apples to rubber chickens. (edit...

@jsmith116 Or you invest in a dividend fund that puts its money into a basket of 100 big, steady dividend paying corporations.

@paladius I think it's even worse. Smolyansky is not talking about rates rising but just about having no further to fall. A real, long term rise would be a whole 'nother kettle of fish. Even dividend paying stocks have had their PE inflated, because tax and interest made them more profitable...

@justwantin2fellowship Well, everyone here is currently gambling, especially if they're in stocks at the current high PEs.

@nicolalalala I agree; I think TIPS yielding 2.2% proves this.

@parkersburg614 Which policies? I'd say "none" because inflation started in many countries at once, during covid.

@resjudicata I should point out that 10% has been the nominal return for these funds, so real returns have been more like 8%, which is closer to the historical level of 7 real returns or so. But the historical level of 7% returns is associated with a P/E=16 (crudely, 1/16=6.25%), so the...

@needlesofgold I agree. I referred to this site when writing the post to which you are replying. the amount of oil in SPR has been basically flat since start of 2023, indicating drawdowns ended (for practical purposes) in 2022, as I stated. One needs to click on the 5 year scale to get a...

@needlesofgold SPR reserves stopped being drawn down in 2022, and it was only 15 days of US consumption. The price of oil is global. And how does consumer debt relate to CPI, which is a measure of prices paid for stuff?

@konsciencia That's a good answer, and also worrying for me as an investor, because we can only source so much more from abroad (max: 100% of inputs). The labor productivity is sustainable if driven by long-term automation trends. The other problem is that companies have pocketed these extra...

@needlesofgold Well, my point here was to test its inaccuracy by seeing if the real price of oil, corn, or housing deviated a lot from what CPI based inflation suggests. In fact, it looks like the price of these things using CPI as a real-value measure is roughly constant, suggesting that...

@needlesofgold How would one show this? Here is Oil price divided by CPI - oil is cheaper than in 2009-2014 in official inflation adjusted dollars. Here is Corn price divided by CPI. This is also near a 20 year low, but above the 1986-2000 era. Here is Case Shiller House Price Index...