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  1. J

    Tesla earnings growth justifies its valuation, here’s the data

    @kgray I have no problem with Elon, but his fanboys treat him like Jesus and think his genius is going to break the laws of business if not the laws of physics.
  2. J

    Dallas Fed: U.S. Likely Didn’t Slip into Recession in Early 2022 Despite Negative GDP Growth

    @lalagata Fair point! But it starts with the headline here (and your subject), which also makes it seem like the important question here is the 'recession or not' dichotomy, rather than all the interesting trends that underpin that information. Maybe I'm being too quick on the trigger here, but...
  3. J

    Dallas Fed: U.S. Likely Didn’t Slip into Recession in Early 2022 Despite Negative GDP Growth

    @lalagata Your assumption is absolutely correct - people like to turn a complex topic like the economy into a simple political narrative.
  4. J

    Dallas Fed: U.S. Likely Didn’t Slip into Recession in Early 2022 Despite Negative GDP Growth

    @lalagata Oh, totally, I think looking at the underlying data is really interesting. But whether that leads to an official "recession" or "no recession" is not especially important. And yet, every single time the issue comes up, the comment threads devolve into partisan flame wars. So I'm not...
  5. J

    Tesla earnings growth justifies its valuation, here’s the data

    @maryslittleflower And what would their revenue and earnings be like at that volume? What EPS would they hit, and what would their share price be at ‘normal’ P/E valuations? I’ll say it again: Tesla can have an absolutely jaw dropping historically great decade and it still would not produce...
  6. J

    Dallas Fed: U.S. Likely Didn’t Slip into Recession in Early 2022 Despite Negative GDP Growth

    @lalagata Oh joy. Another round of arguing whether an arbitrary term should be applied or not, as if that decision is of critical importance as opposed to being a meaningless partisan talking point. I can't wait.
  7. J

    Tesla earnings growth justifies its valuation, here’s the data

    @hadewhole You’re speaking in the future tense right? My point is that Tesla would need to reach unprecedented levels of dominance to justify its stock price at current valuations. If you’re baking in that assumption, then sure, but betting on a historical anomaly is not what I would call proper...
  8. J

    Wealthfront Automated Investing vs VTSAX 10 year returns: 7.5% vs 11.9%

    @thanful1 Is 9.0 the highest level of risk? I guess it could be, but a more common metric would be 10.0 as the highest level of risk. So for starters I'm guessing you're comparing a "not quite max risky" asset against a "max risky" asset. Secondly, Wealthfront (like most robo advisors, or...
  9. J

    Tesla earnings growth justifies its valuation, here’s the data

    @lyn244 Are there historical precedents for a company with that share of global revenue?
  10. J

    Tesla earnings growth justifies its valuation, here’s the data

    @lyn244 See, I don't read that as justification for PEG, I read that as screening out useful information. You're deleting crucial context to make a cleaner derivative value, without plugging that number back in to see how it works in the larger picture. Where do you see Tesla's earnings in 10...
  11. J

    Tesla earnings growth justifies its valuation, here’s the data

    @lyn244 You're comparing a company still in the upwards part of their curve with much more mature firms. This mode of analysis exactly omits the most important question, which is where their earnings end up, and how high it would have to get to justify the P/E, which is a sizable fraction of the...
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