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@comforter Plannning based on a historical outlier (the US stock market) is way too optimistic IMO and could lead to bad surprises. I don't want to get into this discussion though, there's plenty of material online discussing this for whoever is interested.

@crybaby2384 An 8% real return is very optimistic, the global average has been around 5% in the last hundred years or so. You'd get to around 203k (in today's money) with that kind of return. With a more conservative 3.5% withdrawal, you can withdraw around 7k per year (which is a nice...

@victorianlady This is a complete hodgepodge of a portfolio with horrible fees for most of the products and that doesn't seem to match your goals. What are the allocations to each ETF/fund? Let's look at the fees (as far as I could tell and in the same order your posted them): AT0000774484...

@kellypmart You'll get way more responses if you make your post a poll, we humans love to vote on polls :D I'm effectively 100% invested all the time, I have a cash buffer/emergency fund but it's very small compared to my total invested assets.

@kellip171 If you go to the MSCI website that provides index data (here), you wil find data for the MSCI China index going back to December 31st, 1992. MSCI always provides backtested data for dates even before its indices are launched. Data points for many more countries are in the paper I...

@kellip171 I don't know what an "appropriate multi-year investment horizon" is, but I'll take 30 years since this is more or less the longest I can easily find data for. The GDP of China has grown with roughly 13.2% CAGR in the last 30 years and the MSCI China index has had a 1.8% CAGR in the...

@sharbodie If you don't sell above the tax exempt limit you mentioned previously (which I'm not confirming by the way, I don't know the German tax system), you won't have to pay any taxes. You can stay below that limit if you slowly modify your portfolio over a few years instead of doing it all...

@sharbodie Simplify your portfolio slowly over a couple of years perhaps to avoid taxes? I can't comment on your allocation, this is a personal choice based on your need, ability, and willingness to take risk.

@kellip171 GDP growth is the standard measure used by most economists as far as I'm aware. Let's keep it to one topic at a time.

@kellip171 They mostly reflect surprises about the performance of the corporations, not the performance of the corporations themselves. I'm not sure what you mean by "poor" and "great" economies, these are very subjective terms.

@sharbodie I now see how you got there, but I wouldn't keep it like that. Just sell everything except Vanguard FTSE All-World and Xtrackers II Global Government Bond UCITS ETF (maybe keep the inflation-linked bonds too if you understand how they work) and allocate those as you want. You might...

@sharbodie I would sell whichever positions are above their target allocations to bring the portfolio back to where you want it in terms of risk. As a side-note, I would love to hear the reasoning behind this portfolio. It seems quite messy to me.

@kellip171 Even if that is true, it does not mean that the stock market will also outperform. As the saying goes, the stock market is not the economy. As usual, Ben Felix explains this very well in one of his videos.

@resjudicata This is a good start: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Nonresident\_alien\_investors\_and\_Ireland\_domiciled\_ETFs

@landscape_guy Just for some context, Ben's model portfolio overweights Canadian stocks massively (30% instead of the market-cap weight of 3%) for tax reasons. The remaining 70% of the portfolio follows pretty much market-cap regional weights though (it's about 57% US, 31% Developed ex-US, 12%...

@resjudicata We should also not forget the dividend leakage to get a more complete idea of the costs. This is around 0.20%-0.25% depending on the year for a world ETF domiciled in Ireland, so the total costs are 0.45%-0.50%. All physical ETFs have dividend leakage though, this is not something...

@anton0003 The all weather portfolio uses only government bonds. Also, the bond ETFs you have selected don't have the correct durations. For long-term bonds you want something like the Xtrackers Eurozone Government Bond 15-30 UCITS ETF. For intermediate bonds you want something like the iShares...

@jstigga Right then, have fun with the car :) For what it's worth, for my own planning I currently assume a 6.1% nominal return for global equities (in euros) in the next 10 years, based on this tool from Research Affiliates. This is higher than the interest rate on your loan, so if you have a...

@anthony28 Whether you need to reward yourself and how is part of the same question: do you really need it? If yes, by all means go ahead, but stop for a moment to think about it. That is all I meant.

@anthony28 Let me rephrase for the pedants: "Is an expensive car a good way to reward yourself?" :) And maybe the answer is "yes" for OP, even though for most people it probably isn't. That's fine, it's just good to make sure that you have thought about it.